Our call (the consensus) had the winner in 49.5 of 79 games (63%).
SRS has done best so far: 49.5 of 77 (64%).
Our model missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average; the market's margin by 9.8. Ours was closer in 38 of 79 games.
Weeks 1–4 are reconstructed: worked out afterwards from data before each week, because these pages did not exist yet. From Week 5 every prediction was published before kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
| Model | Games | Winner right | Rate | Average miss | Brier score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call) | 79 | 49.5 of 79 | 63% | 9.7 | 0.223 |
| Our model Experimental | 79 | 47.5 of 79 | 60% | 9.8 | 0.232 |
| Elo | 79 | 48.5 of 77 | 63% | 9.7 | 0.220 |
| SRS | 79 | 49.5 of 77 | 64% | 9.9 | 0.227 |
| ESPN FPI | 79 | 47.5 of 79 | 60% | 10.2 | 0.234 |
| Record | 79 | 46.5 of 79 | 59% | — | — |
| Market | 79 | — | — | 9.8 | — |
Winner right: games where the model favored the team that won (a tie counts half). Average miss: points between the model's margin and the final margin. Brier score: the average squared gap between the win chance and what happened (lower is better; always saying 50% scores 0.250). The market is shown by its margin's miss only. Record gives a winner only.
Why some Winner right counts are out of fewer games: A model whose margin rounds to 0.0 points calls the game even and names no winner: Elo in 2 games (Packers at Buccaneers, Week 4; Colts at Commanders, Week 4); SRS in 2 games (Bengals at Steelers, Week 3; Ravens at Falcons, Week 5). Those games count in its Games and Average miss but not in Winner right.
| Model | Games | Winner right | Rate | Average miss | Brier score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call) | 15 | 10.5 of 15 | 70% | 10.1 | 0.205 |
| Our model | 15 | 10.5 of 15 | 70% | 10.0 | 0.213 |
| Elo | 15 | 9.5 of 15 | 63% | 9.2 | 0.191 |
| SRS | 15 | 9.5 of 14 | 68% | 10.8 | 0.215 |
| ESPN FPI | 15 | 9.5 of 15 | 63% | 11.1 | 0.223 |
| Record | 15 | 9.5 of 15 | 63% | — | — |
| Market | 15 | — | — | 10.4 | — |
| Week | Consensus | Our model | Elo | SRS | ESPN FPI | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 Reconstructed | 10 of 16 | 10 of 16 | 10 of 16 | 9 of 16 | 11 of 16 | 10 of 16 |
| Week 2 Reconstructed | 9 of 16 | 10 of 16 | 10 of 16 | 9 of 16 | 9 of 16 | 7 of 16 |
| Week 3 Reconstructed | 9 of 16 | 8 of 16 | 11 of 16 | 10 of 15 | 7 of 16 | 11 of 16 |
| Week 4 Reconstructed | 11 of 16 | 9 of 16 | 8 of 14 | 12 of 16 | 11 of 16 | 9 of 16 |
| Week 5 | 10.5 of 15 | 10.5 of 15 | 9.5 of 15 | 9.5 of 14 | 9.5 of 15 | 9.5 of 15 |
Check any of it: each game page has every model's number as it stood at kickoff, and each team's name links its page. Only the prediction frozen at kickoff is graded; the weeks still ahead are on the schedule.
| Game | Consensus | Our model | Elo | SRS | ESPN FPI | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers at CowboysFinal: Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16. Closest: SRS. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Eagles at JaguarsFinal: Jaguars 19, Eagles 17. Closest: Elo. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Bears at PackersFinal: Packers 31, Bears 7. Closest: Our model. Game page | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Bengals at DolphinsFinal: Bengals 31, Dolphins 24. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Browns at JetsFinal: Jets 17, Browns 12. Closest: Our model. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ |
| Texans at TitansFinal: Texans 26, Titans 3. Closest of our models: Elo. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ |
| Colts at SteelersFinal: Steelers 34, Colts 22. Closest of our models: Elo. Game page | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ |
| Raiders at PatriotsFinal: Patriots 45, Raiders 17. Closest: Elo. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ |
| Vikings at SaintsFinal: Vikings 23, Saints 13. Closest: Elo. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Giants at CommandersFinal (overtime): tied 27–27. Closest: Elo. Game page | ½ | ½ | ½ | ½ | ½ | ½ |
| Broncos at ChargersFinal: Broncos 23, Chargers 17. Closest: Elo. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Lions at CardinalsFinal: Lions 45, Cardinals 21. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| 49ers at SeahawksFinal: 49ers 32, Seahawks 29. Closest: Our model. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Ravens at FalconsFinal (overtime): Ravens 30, Falcons 23. Closest: Elo. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | — | ✗ | ✓ |
| Bills at RamsFinal (overtime): Bills 37, Rams 34. Closest: Elo. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ |
| Game | Consensus | Our model | Elo | SRS | ESPN FPI | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers at BrownsFinal: Browns 27, Steelers 24. Closest: SRS. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ |
| Colts at CommandersFinal: Colts 30, Commanders 13. Closest of our models: SRS. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | — | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ |
| Cardinals at GiantsFinal: Giants 36, Cardinals 24. Closest: Elo. Game page | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ |
| Cowboys at TexansFinal: Cowboys 34, Texans 30. Closest: ESPN FPI. Game page | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Packers at BuccaneersFinal: Packers 17, Buccaneers 14. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | — | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Jaguars at BengalsFinal: Jaguars 22, Bengals 17. Closest: SRS. Game page | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ |
| Rams at EaglesFinal: Rams 24, Eagles 20. Closest: ESPN FPI. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ |
| Patriots at BillsFinal: Patriots 29, Bills 26. Closest: SRS. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Jets at BearsFinal: Bears 23, Jets 12. Closest: SRS. Game page | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Titans at RavensFinal: Ravens 24, Titans 18. Closest: Our model. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Dolphins at VikingsFinal: Vikings 15, Dolphins 10. Closest: Our model. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Broncos at 49ersFinal: 49ers 24, Broncos 14. Closest: ESPN FPI. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Chiefs at RaidersFinal: Chiefs 30, Raiders 27. Closest: Elo. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ |
| Chargers at SeahawksFinal: Seahawks 30, Chargers 23. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Lions at PanthersFinal: Panthers 32, Lions 26. Closest: SRS. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Falcons at SaintsFinal: Falcons 45, Saints 24. Closest: Our model. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Game | Consensus | Our model | Elo | SRS | ESPN FPI | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons at PackersFinal: Falcons 35, Packers 14. Closest of our models: Elo. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Panthers at BrownsFinal: Browns 21, Panthers 18. Closest: Elo. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ |
| Bengals at SteelersFinal: Steelers 30, Bengals 27. Closest: Elo. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | — | ✗ | ✗ |
| Texans at ColtsFinal: Colts 19, Texans 17. Closest: SRS. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ |
| Chiefs at DolphinsFinal: Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10. Closest: ESPN FPI. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Chargers at BillsFinal: Bills 24, Chargers 16. Closest: ESPN FPI. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Patriots at JaguarsFinal: Jaguars 35, Patriots 6. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI. Game page | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Jets at LionsFinal: Lions 31, Jets 24. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Seahawks at CommandersFinal: Commanders 33, Seahawks 31. Closest: Our model. Game page | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Titans at GiantsFinal: Giants 12, Titans 7. Closest: SRS. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ |
| Cardinals at 49ersFinal: 49ers 36, Cardinals 30. Closest: Our model. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Vikings at BuccaneersFinal: Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16. Closest: Elo. Game page | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Ravens at CowboysFinal: Ravens 34, Cowboys 31. Closest of our models: SRS. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ |
| Raiders at SaintsFinal: Raiders 35, Saints 27. Closest: Elo and SRS. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ |
| Rams at BroncosFinal: Broncos 30, Rams 26. Closest: Elo. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ |
| Eagles at BearsFinal: Bears 27, Eagles 7. Closest: SRS. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Game | Consensus | Our model | Elo | SRS | ESPN FPI | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions at BillsFinal: Bills 41, Lions 31. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Panthers at FalconsFinal: Panthers 34, Falcons 3. Closest: ESPN FPI. Game page | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ |
| Bengals at TexansFinal: Bengals 20, Texans 6. Closest: Our model. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ |
| Browns at BuccaneersFinal: Browns 23, Buccaneers 19. Closest: Elo. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Packers at JetsFinal (overtime): Packers 20, Jets 17. Closest: Elo. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ |
| Vikings at BearsFinal: Vikings 9, Bears 3. Closest: Elo. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Saints at RavensFinal: Saints 24, Ravens 17. Closest: SRS. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Eagles at TitansFinal: Eagles 24, Titans 20. Closest: SRS. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Steelers at PatriotsFinal: Patriots 20, Steelers 3. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ |
| Jaguars at BroncosFinal: Broncos 20, Jaguars 13. Closest of our models: Elo. Game page | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Raiders at ChargersFinal: Raiders 26, Chargers 14. Closest: SRS. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ |
| Dolphins at 49ersFinal: 49ers 35, Dolphins 13. Closest: ESPN FPI. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Seahawks at CardinalsFinal: Seahawks 31, Cardinals 7. Closest: Elo. Game page | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Commanders at CowboysFinal: Cowboys 37, Commanders 20. Closest: ESPN FPI. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Colts at ChiefsFinal (overtime): Chiefs 33, Colts 30. Closest: SRS. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Giants at RamsFinal: Rams 28, Giants 6. Closest: Elo. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ |
| Game | Consensus | Our model | Elo | SRS | ESPN FPI | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots at SeahawksFinal: Seahawks 13, Patriots 10. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI. Game page | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| 49ers at RamsFinal: 49ers 27, Rams 7. Closest: Our model. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Falcons at SteelersFinal: Steelers 20, Falcons 13. Closest of our models: Our model. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Ravens at ColtsFinal: Ravens 41, Colts 23. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ |
| Bills at TexansFinal: Bills 36, Texans 31. Closest of our models: Our model. Game page | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ |
| Bears at PanthersFinal: Bears 59, Panthers 37. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ |
| Browns at JaguarsFinal: Jaguars 34, Browns 10. Closest: Our model. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Saints at LionsFinal (overtime): Lions 31, Saints 30. Closest: SRS. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Jets at TitansFinal: Jets 23, Titans 10. Closest of our models: Elo. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Buccaneers at BengalsFinal: Bengals 33, Buccaneers 27. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Cardinals at ChargersFinal: Cardinals 26, Chargers 14. Closest: Our model. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Packers at VikingsFinal: Vikings 39, Packers 22. Closest: Elo. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ |
| Dolphins at RaidersFinal: Raiders 27, Dolphins 13. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Commanders at EaglesFinal: Eagles 24, Commanders 22. Closest: Our model. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Cowboys at GiantsFinal: Giants 28, Cowboys 20. Closest: SRS. Game page | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ |
| Broncos at ChiefsFinal: Chiefs 31, Broncos 10. Closest: Our model. Game page | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |