2 of 4 models favor the Saints.
On average the models have the Saints by 0.7 points, a 52% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Saints by 0.7 | 52% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Saints by 1.9 | 56% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Browns by 0.1 | 50% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Saints by 0.2 | 51% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Browns | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 9's first kickoff.
The official Week 9 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Browns | Saints | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.02 (20th) | −0.10 (29th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.03 (20th) | −0.04 (23rd) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.02 (13th) | +0.07 (27th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.08 (15th) | −0.01 (24th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.23 (32nd) | −0.08 (18th) |
| Offense success rate | 40% (27th) | 44% (14th) |
The Saints won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 17, 2024Week 11, 2024 | Saints 35, Browns 14at New Orleans |
| Dec 24, 2022Week 16, 2022 | Saints 17, Browns 10at Cleveland |
| Sep 16, 2018Week 2, 2018 | Saints 21, Browns 18at New Orleans |
| Sep 14, 2014Week 2, 2014 | Browns 26, Saints 24at Cleveland |
| Oct 24, 2010Week 7, 2010 | Browns 30, Saints 17at New Orleans |