3–2, tied for 2nd in the AFC North; offense and defense both in the middle of the league.
The Browns are 3–2 in 2026, 1–0 against the AFC North.
By opponent-adjusted EPA per play the Browns' offense ranks 20th (−0.03) and their defense 13th (−0.02 allowed); 20th of 32 by net (−0.02).
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18 · 12:00 PM CT on Fox
Our call: Ravens Toss-up
5 of 5 models favor the Ravens. On average the models have the Ravens by 2.6 points, a 59% win chance.
Every model, the quarterbacks and the matchup →
TV listings: ESPN
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours. League-wide news →
| Team | Record | In the division |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 4–1 | 0–0 |
| Cleveland Browns | 3–2 | 1–0 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3–2 | 1–1 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3–2 | 0–1 |
By winning percentage (a tie counts half), then the NFL's division tiebreakers as our standings apply them.
| Week | Opponent | Result | Our call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1Sun, Sep 13 · CBS | at Jaguars | L 10–34 | Jaguars Strong · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 2Sun, Sep 20 · CBS | at Buccaneers | W 23–19 | Buccaneers Lean · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 3Sun, Sep 27 · Fox | vs Panthers | W 21–18 | Panthers Toss-up · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 4Thu, Oct 1 · Prime Video | vs Steelers | W 27–24 | Steelers Toss-up · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 5Sun, Oct 11 · CBS | at Jets | L 12–17 | Jets Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 6Sun, Oct 18 · Fox | vs Ravens | — | Ravens Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 7Sun, Oct 25 · CBS | at Titans | — | Browns Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 8Sun, Nov 1 · CBS | at Steelers | — | Steelers Lean | Game page |
| Week 9Sun, Nov 8 · CBS | at Saints | — | Saints Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 10Sun, Nov 15 · Fox | vs Texans | — | Texans Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 11 | Bye | |||
| Week 12Sun, Nov 29 · Fox | vs Raiders | — | Browns Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 13Sun, Dec 6 · CBS | vs Bengals | — | Bengals Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 14Sun, Dec 13 · CBS | vs Falcons | — | Falcons Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 15Sun, Dec 20 · CBS | at Giants | — | Giants Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 16Sun, Dec 27 · CBS | at Ravens | — | Ravens Lean | Game page |
| Week 17Sun, Jan 3 · Fox | vs Colts | — | Colts Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 18Sun, Jan 10 | at Bengals | — | Bengals Lean | Game page |
Our call is the team the consensus of our models favored before kickoff, never changed after it; ✓ when that team won, ✗ when it lost. Each game page shows every model.
TV listings: ESPN
2026 regular season through Week 5, from nflverse's player stats: the Browns players above the leaders page's marks per team game.
| Player | Yardspassing | Attempts | Completedof attempts | TD | INT | EPAper dropback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun WatsonQB | 1,010 | 148 | 64% | 7 | 2 | +0.02 |
| Player | Yardsrushing | Carries | Yardsper carry | TDrushing | Targets | Share ofteam targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon JudkinsRB | 221 | 73 | 3.0 | 1 | 20 | 14% |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel BostonWR | 330 | 16 | 29 | 20% | 477 | 3 |
| KC ConcepcionWR | 149 | 18 | 29 | 20% | 176 | 0 |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harold Fannin Jr.TE | 157 | 18 | 27 | 18% | 174 | 3 |
| Player | Tackles | For loss | Sacks | INT | Passesdefended | Fumblesforced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson SchwesingerLB | 43 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Quincy WilliamsLB | 34 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Ronnie Hickman Jr.SAF | 26 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Denzel WardCB | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Tyson CampbellCB | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Grant DelpitSAF | 23 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenSAF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Myles HardenCB | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Adin HuntingtonDE | 15 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mason GrahamDT | 15 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top 10 by tackles.
| Player | FG made | FG tried | Longestyards | Extra pointsmade | Extra pointstried |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre SzmytK | 10 | 10 | 56 | 7 | 8 |
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, 2026 regular season to date; league rank of 32 beside each.
| Browns | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.03 | 20th |
| Offense, success rate | 40% | 27th |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.08 | 15th |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.23 | 32nd |
What the defense allowed, opponent-adjusted, 2026 regular season to date; 1st allowed the least. Net is offense minus defense.
| Browns | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Defense, EPA per play allowed | −0.02 | 13th |
| Defense, success rate allowed | 44% | 15th |
| Pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed | −0.01 | 8th |
| Run defense, EPA per run allowed | −0.03 | 27th |
| Net EPA per play (offense minus defense) | −0.02 | 20th |
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Our call had the winner in 2 of 5 Browns games (40%).
| Model | Games | Winner right | Rate | Average miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call) | 5 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 7.9 |
| Our model Experimental | 5 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 7.9 |
| Elo | 5 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 7.6 |
| SRS | 5 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 7.3 |
| ESPN FPI | 5 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 8.8 |
| Record | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | — |
Winner right: games where the model favored the team that won (a tie counts half). Average miss: points between the model's margin and the final margin. Weeks 1–4 reconstructed: worked out afterwards from data before each week. Every game, every team →
Outside looking in: the Browns reach the playoffs in 24% of our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season and win the AFC North in 9%; their average finish is 8–9.
In the race for the 2027 draft: the Browns get the #1 pick in <1% of the simulations and a top-5 pick in 5%. Draft order →
After Week 5's games; simulated Tue, Oct 13 · 6:05 PM CT. The rest of the season is played out 20,000 times, each game with our call's win chance; the NFL's tiebreakers are applied in simplified form (no points or touchdown steps). How the simulation works →