4 of 4 models favor the Steelers.
On average the models have the Steelers by 4.9 points, a 65% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Steelers by 4.9 | 65% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Steelers by 5.3 | 66% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Steelers by 5.1 | 68% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Steelers by 4.2 | 62% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Steelers | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 8's first kickoff.
The official Week 8 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Browns | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.02 (20th) | −0.03 (22nd) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.03 (20th) | −0.02 (18th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.02 (13th) | +0.01 (18th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.08 (15th) | −0.01 (22nd) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.23 (32nd) | −0.02 (7th) |
| Offense success rate | 40% (27th) | 43% (18th) |
The Browns won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Oct 1, 2026Week 4, 2026 | Browns 27, Steelers 24at Cleveland |
| Dec 28, 2025Week 17, 2025 | Browns 13, Steelers 6at Cleveland |
| Oct 12, 2025Week 6, 2025 | Steelers 23, Browns 9at Pittsburgh |
| Dec 8, 2024Week 14, 2024 | Steelers 27, Browns 14at Pittsburgh |
| Nov 21, 2024Week 12, 2024 | Browns 24, Steelers 19at Cleveland |