If the season ended today, the Titans (0–5) would have the first pick.
In our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season, the Titans end up with the #1 pick most often (49%), ahead of the Chargers (16%) and the Dolphins (16%).
Pick ownership after trades not reflected: every team is shown in its own slot.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
After Week 5's games; simulated Tue, Oct 13 · 6:05 PM CT. Today: the order if the season ended now, from the games played. Projected: the teams by their average pick over our 20,000 simulations, with each one's chance of the #1 pick, a top-5 and a top-10 pick.
| Pick | Today | Projected | #1 | Top 5 | Top 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Titans0–5 | Titans3–14 · average pick 2.3 | 49% | 93% | 99% |
| 2 | Chargers0–5 | Dolphins4–13 · average pick 4.2 | 16% | 75% | 94% |
| 3 | Dolphins0–5 | Chargers4–13 · average pick 4.5 | 16% | 72% | 93% |
| 4 | Texans1–4 | Cardinals5–12 · average pick 6.4 | 6% | 51% | 83% |
| 5 | Cardinals1–4 | Saints6–11 · average pick 7.9 | 4% | 41% | 76% |
| 6 | Buccaneers1–4 | Buccaneers6–11 · average pick 9.1 | 3% | 34% | 70% |
| 7 | Saints1–4 | Commanders6–10–1 · average pick 9.1 | 2% | 31% | 68% |
| 8 | Commanders1–3–1 | Jets7–10 · average pick 9.6 | 1% | 25% | 63% |
| 9 | Eagles2–3 | Texans8–9 · average pick 12.2 | 1% | 13% | 44% |
| 10 | Cowboys2–3 | Raiders8–9 · average pick 13.2 | <1% | 9% | 37% |
| 11 | Jets2–3 | Cowboys8–9 · average pick 13.6 | <1% | 11% | 42% |
| 12 | Falcons2–3 | Eagles8–9 · average pick 14.3 | <1% | 10% | 36% |
| 13 | Colts2–3 | Colts8–9 · average pick 14.4 | <1% | 6% | 29% |
| 14 | Rams2–3 | Browns8–9 · average pick 14.7 | <1% | 5% | 26% |
| 15 | Bengals3–2 | Falcons8–9 · average pick 15.4 | <1% | 8% | 30% |
| 16 | Seahawks3–2 | Giants8–8–1 · average pick 16.9 | <1% | 4% | 22% |
| 17 | Browns3–2 | Bears9–8 · average pick 17.2 | <1% | 2% | 14% |
| 18 | Steelers3–2 | Panthers8–9 · average pick 18.1 | <1% | 5% | 21% |
| Playoff teams: picks 19–32 by the round they go out, then record | |||||
| 19 | Panthers2–2 | Steelers9–8 · average pick 19.1 | <1% | 1% | 9% |
| 20 | Raiders3–2 | Packers9–8 · average pick 19.8 | <1% | 1% | 9% |
| 21 | Lions3–2 | Lions10–7 · average pick 20.6 | <1% | 1% | 7% |
| 22 | Packers3–2 | Rams9–8 · average pick 20.6 | <1% | 1% | 7% |
| 23 | Bears3–2 | Broncos10–7 · average pick 21.2 | <1% | <1% | 5% |
| 24 | Broncos3–2 | Bengals10–7 · average pick 21.4 | <1% | 1% | 5% |
| 25 | Patriots3–2 | Ravens10–7 · average pick 21.8 | 0% | <1% | 3% |
| 26 | Giants3–1–1 | Seahawks10–7 · average pick 22.5 | 0% | <1% | 2% |
| 27 | Ravens4–1 | Patriots11–6 · average pick 24.4 | 0% | <1% | 1% |
| 28 | Bills4–1 | Bills11–6 · average pick 25.7 | 0% | <1% | 1% |
| 29 | Jaguars4–1 | Vikings12–5 · average pick 25.7 | 0% | <1% | <1% |
| 30 | Vikings5–0 | Chiefs11–6 · average pick 25.8 | 0% | <1% | 1% |
| 31 | 49ers5–0 | Jaguars12–5 · average pick 27.0 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
| 32 | Chiefs4–0 | 49ers13–4 · average pick 29.1 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
Projected records are each team's average finish, rounded. Picks 1–18 go to the teams outside the playoffs, worst record first; picks 19–32 to the playoff teams by the round they go out (wild card 19–24, divisional 25–28, conference 29–30, the Super Bowl loser 31, the champion 32), worse record first. Today's playoff teams fill picks 19–32 by record.
We play out the rest of the 2026 season 20,000 times, from the same starting number every time, so the same results and predictions always give the same chances.