4–1, 1st in the AFC South; offense and defense both top 10.
The Jaguars are 4–1 in 2026.
By opponent-adjusted EPA per play the Jaguars' offense ranks 3rd (+0.12) and their defense 4th (−0.05 allowed); 2nd of 32 by net (+0.18).
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18 · 8:30 AM CT on NFL Network · neutral site
Our call: Jaguars Lean
5 of 5 models favor the Jaguars. On average the models have the Jaguars by 4.1 points, a 63% win chance.
Every model, the quarterbacks and the matchup →
TV listings: ESPN
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours. League-wide news →
| Team | Record | In the division |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4–1 | 0–0 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2–3 | 1–0 |
| Houston Texans | 1–4 | 1–1 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0–5 | 0–1 |
By winning percentage (a tie counts half), then the NFL's division tiebreakers as our standings apply them.
| Week | Opponent | Result | Our call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1Sun, Sep 13 · CBS | vs Browns | W 34–10 | Jaguars Strong · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 2Sun, Sep 20 · CBS | at Broncos | L 13–20 | Jaguars Toss-up · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 3Sun, Sep 27 · CBS | vs Patriots | W 35–6 | Jaguars Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 4Sun, Oct 4 · CBS | at Bengals | W 22–17 | Jaguars Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 5Sun, Oct 11 · NFL Network | vs Eaglesneutral site | W 19–17 | Jaguars Lean · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 6Sun, Oct 18 · NFL Network | vs Texansneutral site | — | Jaguars Lean | Game page |
| Week 7 | Bye | |||
| Week 8Sun, Nov 1 · CBS | vs Colts | — | Jaguars Strong | Game page |
| Week 9Thu, Nov 5 · Prime Video | at Ravens | — | Jaguars Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 10Sun, Nov 15 · Fox | at Titans | — | Jaguars Strong | Game page |
| Week 11Sun, Nov 22 · CBS | at Giants | — | Jaguars Lean | Game page |
| Week 12Sun, Nov 29 · CBS | vs Titans | — | Jaguars Strong | Game page |
| Week 13Sun, Dec 6 · Fox | at Bears | — | Jaguars Lean | Game page |
| Week 14Mon, Dec 14 · ESPN | vs Steelers | — | Jaguars Lean | Game page |
| Week 15Sun, Dec 20 · CBS | at Texans | — | Jaguars Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 16Sun, Dec 27 · NBC | at Cowboys | — | Jaguars Lean | Game page |
| Week 17Sun, Jan 3 | vs Commanders | — | Jaguars Strong | Game page |
| Week 18Sun, Jan 10 | at Colts | — | Jaguars Lean | Game page |
Our call is the team the consensus of our models favored before kickoff, never changed after it; ✓ when that team won, ✗ when it lost. Each game page shows every model.
TV listings: ESPN
2026 regular season through Week 5, from nflverse's player stats: the Jaguars players above the leaders page's marks per team game.
| Player | Yardspassing | Attempts | Completedof attempts | TD | INT | EPAper dropback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor LawrenceQB | 1,174 | 143 | 67% | 10 | 3 | +0.27 |
| Player | Yardsrushing | Carries | Yardsper carry | TDrushing | Targets | Share ofteam targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhayshul TutenRB | 349 | 82 | 4.3 | 2 | 10 | 7.3% |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker WashingtonWR | 352 | 22 | 35 | 26% | 446 | 4 |
| Jakobi MeyersWR | 202 | 15 | 18 | 13% | 180 | 2 |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brenton StrangeTE | 235 | 21 | 26 | 19% | 198 | 1 |
| Player | Tackles | For loss | Sacks | INT | Passesdefended | Fumblesforced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade OluokunLB | 34 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Ventrell MillerLB | 33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Antonio JohnsonSAF | 24 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Hines-AllenDE | 19 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Travis HunterCB | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jarrian JonesCB | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jourdan LewisCB | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Rayuan Lane IIISAF | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| DaVon HamiltonDT | 13 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Branson CombsLB | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top 10 by tackles.
| Player | FG made | FG tried | Longestyards | Extra pointsmade | Extra pointstried |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam LittleK | 9 | 11 | 57 | 12 | 13 |
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, 2026 regular season to date; league rank of 32 beside each.
| Jaguars | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.12 | 3rd |
| Offense, success rate | 47% | 6th |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.25 | 3rd |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.05 | 12th |
What the defense allowed, opponent-adjusted, 2026 regular season to date; 1st allowed the least. Net is offense minus defense.
| Jaguars | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Defense, EPA per play allowed | −0.05 | 4th |
| Defense, success rate allowed | 43% | 13th |
| Pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed | 0.00 | 9th |
| Run defense, EPA per run allowed | −0.15 | 4th |
| Net EPA per play (offense minus defense) | +0.18 | 2nd |
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Our call had the winner in 4 of 5 Jaguars games (80%).
| Model | Games | Winner right | Rate | Average miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call) | 5 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 11.8 |
| Our model Experimental | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 11.9 |
| Elo | 5 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 11.4 |
| SRS | 5 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 12.2 |
| ESPN FPI | 5 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 12.5 |
| Record | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | — |
Winner right: games where the model favored the team that won (a tie counts half). Average miss: points between the model's margin and the final margin. Weeks 1–4 reconstructed: worked out afterwards from data before each week. Every game, every team →
Very likely in: the Jaguars reach the playoffs in 96% of our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season and win the AFC South in 90%; their average finish is 12–5.
After Week 5's games; simulated Tue, Oct 13 · 6:05 PM CT. The rest of the season is played out 20,000 times, each game with our call's win chance; the NFL's tiebreakers are applied in simplified form (no points or touchdown steps). How the simulation works →