5 of 5 models favor the Jaguars.
On average the models have the Jaguars by 8.4 points, a 76% win chance.
Final: Jaguars 34, Browns 10.
Closest: Our model (Jaguars by 9.2, missed by 14.8). 5 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 1 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Jaguars won 34–10. Lawrence threw for 245 yards and 4 touchdowns. Our call (Jaguars, Strong) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Browns | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 272 | 360 |
| Passing yards | 185 | 234 |
| Rushing yards | 87 | 126 |
| Sacked | 5 (20 yards) | 1 (11 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Jaguars by 8.4 ✓ | 76% | 15.6 |
| Our model Experimental ClosestOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Jaguars by 9.2 ✓ | 76% | 14.8 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Jaguars by 7.5 ✓ | 75% | 16.5 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Jaguars by 9.1 ✓ | 75% | 14.9 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Jaguars by 7.9 ✓ | 77% | 16.1 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Jaguars ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Jaguars by 8.5 | — | 15.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 1 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
The Browns won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 15, 2024Week 2, 2024 | Browns 18, Jaguars 13at Jacksonville |
| Dec 10, 2023Week 14, 2023 | Browns 31, Jaguars 27at Cleveland |
| Nov 29, 2020Week 12, 2020 | Browns 27, Jaguars 25at Jacksonville |
| Nov 19, 2017Week 11, 2017 | Jaguars 19, Browns 7at Cleveland |
| Oct 19, 2014Week 7, 2014 | Jaguars 24, Browns 6at Jacksonville |