Our call for every Week 1 game: the team the consensus of our models favors, how confident it is, and how many models agree. Our call had the winner in 10 of 16 games this week.
Reconstructed: Week 1 came before these pages existed, so these predictions were worked out afterwards from data before the week. The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it Tue, Oct 13 · 11:56 AM CT .
Patriots at Seahawks Wed, Sep 9 · 7:20 PM CT · Final: Seahawks 13, Patriots 10. Our call: Seahawks Toss-up 4 of 5 models favor the Seahawks. Our call was right. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI.
49ers at Rams Thu, Sep 10 · 7:35 PM CT · neutral site · Final: 49ers 27, Rams 7. Our call: Rams Toss-up 5 of 5 models favor the Rams. Our call was wrong. Closest: Our model.
Falcons at Steelers Sun, Sep 13 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Steelers 20, Falcons 13. Our call: Steelers Lean 5 of 5 models favor the Steelers. Our call was right. Closest of our models: Our model.
Ravens at Colts Sun, Sep 13 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Ravens 41, Colts 23. Our call: Ravens Toss-up 3 of 5 models favor the Ravens. Our call was right. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI.
Bills at Texans Sun, Sep 13 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Bills 36, Texans 31. Our call: Texans Toss-up 3 of 5 models favor the Texans. Our call was wrong. Closest of our models: Our model.
Bears at Panthers Sun, Sep 13 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Bears 59, Panthers 37. Our call: Bears Toss-up 4 of 5 models favor the Bears. Our call was right. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI.
Browns at Jaguars Sun, Sep 13 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Jaguars 34, Browns 10. Our call: Jaguars Strong 5 of 5 models favor the Jaguars. Our call was right. Closest: Our model.
Saints at Lions Sun, Sep 13 · 12:00 PM CT · Final (overtime): Lions 31, Saints 30. Our call: Lions Lean 5 of 5 models favor the Lions. Our call was right. Closest: SRS.
Jets at Titans Sun, Sep 13 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Jets 23, Titans 10. Our call: Titans Toss-up 5 of 5 models favor the Titans. Our call was wrong. Closest of our models: Elo.
Buccaneers at Bengals Sun, Sep 13 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Bengals 33, Buccaneers 27. Our call: Bengals Toss-up 4 of 5 models favor the Bengals. Our call was right. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI.
Cardinals at Chargers Sun, Sep 13 · 3:25 PM CT · Final: Cardinals 26, Chargers 14. Our call: Chargers Lean 5 of 5 models favor the Chargers. Our call was wrong. Closest: Our model.
Packers at Vikings Sun, Sep 13 · 3:25 PM CT · Final: Vikings 39, Packers 22. Our call: Packers Toss-up 2 of 5 models favor the Packers. Our call was wrong. Closest: Elo.
Dolphins at Raiders Sun, Sep 13 · 3:25 PM CT · Final: Raiders 27, Dolphins 13. Our call: Raiders Toss-up 3 of 5 models favor the Raiders. Our call was right. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI.
Commanders at Eagles Sun, Sep 13 · 3:25 PM CT · Final: Eagles 24, Commanders 22. Our call: Eagles Lean 5 of 5 models favor the Eagles. Our call was right. Closest: Our model.
Cowboys at Giants Sun, Sep 13 · 7:20 PM CT · Final: Giants 28, Cowboys 20. Our call: Cowboys Toss-up 2 of 5 models favor the Cowboys. Our call was wrong. Closest: SRS.
Broncos at Chiefs Mon, Sep 14 · 7:15 PM CT · Final: Chiefs 31, Broncos 10. Our call: Chiefs Toss-up 4 of 5 models favor the Chiefs. Our call was right. Closest: Our model.
Top performers this week
Over the week's finished games. Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards. Player stats: nflverse (CC BY 4.0).
Our own model is experimental: season so far it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8. Each game page shows every model.