3 of 5 models favor the Raiders.
On average the models have the Raiders by 0.1 points, a 51% win chance.
Final: Raiders 27, Dolphins 13.
Closest of our models: ESPN FPI (Raiders by 2.8, missed by 11.2). 3 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 1 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Raiders won 27–13. Cousins threw for 160 yards and 3 touchdowns. Our call (Raiders, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Dolphins | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 259 | 290 |
| Passing yards | 185 | 160 |
| Rushing yards | 74 | 130 |
| Sacked | 5 (35 yards) | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 2 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Raiders by 0.1 ✓ | 51% | 13.9 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Raiders by 0.8 ✓ | 52% | 13.2 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Dolphins by 2.7 ✗ | 59% | 16.7 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Dolphins by 0.5 ✗ | 52% | 14.5 |
| ESPN FPI ClosestESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Raiders by 2.8 ✓ | 61% | 11.2 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Raiders ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Raiders by 3 | — | 11.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 1 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
No one listed.
The Dolphins won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 17, 2024Week 11, 2024 | Dolphins 34, Raiders 19at Miami |
| Nov 19, 2023Week 11, 2023 | Dolphins 20, Raiders 13at Miami |
| Sep 26, 2021Week 3, 2021 | Raiders 31, Dolphins 28at Las Vegas |
| Dec 26, 2020Week 16, 2020 | Dolphins 26, Raiders 25at Las Vegas |
| Sep 23, 2018Week 3, 2018 | Dolphins 28, Raiders 20at Miami |