3–2, tied for 2nd in the AFC West; offense and defense both in the middle of the league.
The Raiders are 3–2 in 2026, 1–1 against the AFC West.
By opponent-adjusted EPA per play the Raiders' offense ranks 14th (+0.01) and their defense 21st (+0.03 allowed); 21st of 32 by net (−0.02).
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18 · 3:25 PM CT on CBS
Our call: Bills Lean
5 of 5 models favor the Bills. On average the models have the Bills by 4.8 points, a 66% win chance.
Every model, the quarterbacks and the matchup →
TV listings: ESPN
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours. League-wide news →
| Team | Record | In the division |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 4–0 | 2–0 |
| Denver Broncos | 3–2 | 1–1 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 3–2 | 1–1 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0–5 | 0–2 |
By winning percentage (a tie counts half), then the NFL's division tiebreakers as our standings apply them.
| Week | Opponent | Result | Our call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1Sun, Sep 13 · Fox | vs Dolphins | W 27–13 | Raiders Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 2Sun, Sep 20 · CBS | at Chargers | W 26–14 | Chargers Lean · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 3Sun, Sep 27 · CBS | at Saints | W 35–27 | Saints Lean · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 4Sun, Oct 4 · CBS | vs Chiefs | L 27–30 | Chiefs Lean · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 5Sun, Oct 11 · CBS | at Patriots | L 17–45 | Patriots Lean · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 6Sun, Oct 18 · CBS | vs Bills | — | Bills Lean | Game page |
| Week 7Sun, Oct 25 · Fox | vs Rams | — | Rams Lean | Game page |
| Week 8Sun, Nov 1 · Fox | at Jets | — | Jets Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 9Sun, Nov 8 · CBS | at 49ers | — | 49ers Strong | Game page |
| Week 10Sun, Nov 15 · CBS | vs Seahawks | — | Seahawks Lean | Game page |
| Week 11Sun, Nov 22 · CBS | at Broncos | — | Broncos Lean | Game page |
| Week 12Sun, Nov 29 · Fox | at Browns | — | Browns Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 13 | Bye | |||
| Week 14Sun, Dec 13 · CBS | vs Chargers | — | Raiders Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 15Sun, Dec 20 · CBS | vs Broncos | — | Broncos Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 16Sun, Dec 27 · Fox | vs Titans | — | Raiders Lean | Game page |
| Week 17Sun, Jan 3 · CBS | at Cardinals | — | Raiders Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 18Sun, Jan 10 | at Chiefs | — | Chiefs Strong | Game page |
Our call is the team the consensus of our models favored before kickoff, never changed after it; ✓ when that team won, ✗ when it lost. Each game page shows every model.
TV listings: ESPN
2026 regular season through Week 5, from nflverse's player stats: the Raiders players above the leaders page's marks per team game.
| Player | Yardspassing | Attempts | Completedof attempts | TD | INT | EPAper dropback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk CousinsQB | 1,269 | 172 | 65% | 12 | 4 | +0.19 |
| Player | Yardsrushing | Carries | Yardsper carry | TDrushing | Targets | Share ofteam targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton JeantyRB | 291 | 88 | 3.3 | 0 | 30 | 17% |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre TuckerWR | 274 | 19 | 28 | 16% | 412 | 1 |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock BowersTE | 312 | 24 | 34 | 20% | 323 | 3 |
| Michael MayerTE | 171 | 21 | 25 | 15% | 118 | 1 |
| Player | Tackles | For loss | Sacks | INT | Passesdefended | Fumblesforced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nakobe DeanLB | 45 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Quay WalkerLB | 34 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy ChinnSAF | 29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Taron JohnsonCB | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Hezekiah MassesCB | 19 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Treydan StukesSAF | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Eric StokesCB | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tonka HemingwayDT | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Adam ButlerDT | 12 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah Pola-MaoSAF | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top 10 by tackles.
| Player | FG made | FG tried | Longestyards | Extra pointsmade | Extra pointstried |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt GayK | 11 | 12 | 59 | 11 | 11 |
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, 2026 regular season to date; league rank of 32 beside each.
| Raiders | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.01 | 14th |
| Offense, success rate | 42% | 20th |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.13 | 12th |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.18 | 27th |
What the defense allowed, opponent-adjusted, 2026 regular season to date; 1st allowed the least. Net is offense minus defense.
| Raiders | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Defense, EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | 21st |
| Defense, success rate allowed | 45% | 25th |
| Pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed | +0.12 | 25th |
| Run defense, EPA per run allowed | −0.12 | 10th |
| Net EPA per play (offense minus defense) | −0.02 | 21st |
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Our call had the winner in 3 of 5 Raiders games (60%).
| Model | Games | Winner right | Rate | Average miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call) | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 13.2 |
| Our model Experimental | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 13.0 |
| Elo | 5 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 13.3 |
| SRS | 5 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 13.5 |
| ESPN FPI | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 13.5 |
| Record | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | — |
Winner right: games where the model favored the team that won (a tie counts half). Average miss: points between the model's margin and the final margin. Weeks 1–4 reconstructed: worked out afterwards from data before each week. Every game, every team →
Outside looking in: the Raiders reach the playoffs in 19% of our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season and win the AFC West in 4%; their average finish is 8–9.
In the race for the 2027 draft: the Raiders get the #1 pick in <1% of the simulations and a top-5 pick in 9%. Draft order →
After Week 5's games; simulated Tue, Oct 13 · 6:05 PM CT. The rest of the season is played out 20,000 times, each game with our call's win chance; the NFL's tiebreakers are applied in simplified form (no points or touchdown steps). How the simulation works →