3–2, tied for 2nd in the AFC West; offense middle of the league, defense top 10.
The Broncos are 3–2 in 2026, 1–1 against the AFC West.
By opponent-adjusted EPA per play the Broncos' offense ranks 16th (−0.02) and their defense 5th (−0.05 allowed); 11th of 32 by net (+0.03).
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
Week 6 · Thu, Oct 15 · 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video
Our call: Seahawks Toss-up
3 of 5 models favor the Seahawks. On average the models have the Seahawks by 0.8 points, a 53% win chance.
Every model, the quarterbacks and the matchup →
TV listings: ESPN
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours. League-wide news →
| Team | Record | In the division |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 4–0 | 2–0 |
| Denver Broncos | 3–2 | 1–1 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 3–2 | 1–1 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0–5 | 0–2 |
By winning percentage (a tie counts half), then the NFL's division tiebreakers as our standings apply them.
| Week | Opponent | Result | Our call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1Mon, Sep 14 · ESPN and ABC | at Chiefs | L 10–31 | Chiefs Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 2Sun, Sep 20 · CBS | vs Jaguars | W 20–13 | Jaguars Toss-up · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 3Sun, Sep 27 · NBC | vs Rams | W 30–26 | Rams Toss-up · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 4Sun, Oct 4 · CBS | at 49ers | L 14–24 | 49ers Lean · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 5Sun, Oct 11 · CBS | at Chargers | W 23–17 | Broncos Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 6Thu, Oct 15 · Prime Video | vs Seahawks | — | Seahawks Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 7Sun, Oct 25 · CBS | at Cardinals | — | Broncos Lean | Game page |
| Week 8Sun, Nov 1 · CBS | vs Chiefs | — | Broncos Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 9Sun, Nov 8 · CBS | at Panthers | — | Broncos Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 10 | Bye | |||
| Week 11Sun, Nov 22 · CBS | vs Raiders | — | Broncos Lean | Game page |
| Week 12Fri, Nov 27 · Prime Video | at Steelers | — | Steelers Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 13Sun, Dec 6 · Fox | vs Dolphins | — | Broncos Strong | Game page |
| Week 14Sun, Dec 13 · CBS | at Jets | — | Broncos Lean | Game page |
| Week 15Sun, Dec 20 · CBS | at Raiders | — | Broncos Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 16Fri, Dec 25 · Netflix | vs Bills | — | Bills Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 17Sun, Jan 3 | at Patriots | — | Patriots Lean | Game page |
| Week 18Sun, Jan 10 | vs Chargers | — | Broncos Lean | Game page |
Our call is the team the consensus of our models favored before kickoff, never changed after it; ✓ when that team won, ✗ when it lost. Each game page shows every model.
TV listings: ESPN
2026 regular season through Week 5, from nflverse's player stats: the Broncos players above the leaders page's marks per team game.
| Player | Yardspassing | Attempts | Completedof attempts | TD | INT | EPAper dropback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo NixQB | 942 | 162 | 60% | 6 | 3 | −0.05 |
| Player | Yardsrushing | Carries | Yardsper carry | TDrushing | Targets | Share ofteam targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. DobbinsRB | 229 | 64 | 3.6 | 1 | 6 | 4.1% |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen WaddleWR | 204 | 18 | 31 | 21% | 300 | 1 |
| Courtland SuttonWR | 104 | 11 | 25 | 17% | 276 | 1 |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan EngramTE | 121 | 10 | 17 | 12% | 93 | 1 |
| Player | Tackles | For loss | Sacks | INT | Passesdefended | Fumblesforced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex SingletonLB | 53 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brandon JonesSAF | 35 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Justin StrnadLB | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Talanoa HufangaSAF | 23 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Pat Surtain IICB | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Que RobinsonLB | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm RoachDT | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Riley MossCB | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Zach AllenDE | 16 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dondrea TillmanLB | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top 10 by tackles.
| Player | FG made | FG tried | Longestyards | Extra pointsmade | Extra pointstried |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wil LutzK | 8 | 11 | 52 | 7 | 7 |
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, 2026 regular season to date; league rank of 32 beside each.
| Broncos | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.02 | 16th |
| Offense, success rate | 41% | 24th |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.01 | 23rd |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.03 | 10th |
What the defense allowed, opponent-adjusted, 2026 regular season to date; 1st allowed the least. Net is offense minus defense.
| Broncos | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Defense, EPA per play allowed | −0.05 | 5th |
| Defense, success rate allowed | 39% | 4th |
| Pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed | −0.06 | 2nd |
| Run defense, EPA per run allowed | −0.04 | 26th |
| Net EPA per play (offense minus defense) | +0.03 | 11th |
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Our call had the winner in 3 of 5 Broncos games (60%).
| Model | Games | Winner right | Rate | Average miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call) | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 8.2 |
| Our model Experimental | 5 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 6.6 |
| Elo | 5 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 8.4 |
| SRS | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 8.8 |
| ESPN FPI | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 9.0 |
| Record | 5 | 4 of 5 | 80% | — |
Winner right: games where the model favored the team that won (a tie counts half). Average miss: points between the model's margin and the final margin. Weeks 1–4 reconstructed: worked out afterwards from data before each week. Every game, every team →
Likely in: the Broncos reach the playoffs in 65% of our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season and win the AFC West in 23%; their average finish is 10–7.
In the race for the 2027 draft: the Broncos get the #1 pick in <1% of the simulations and a top-5 pick in <1%. Draft order →
After Week 5's games; simulated Tue, Oct 13 · 6:05 PM CT. The rest of the season is played out 20,000 times, each game with our call's win chance; the NFL's tiebreakers are applied in simplified form (no points or touchdown steps). How the simulation works →