3 of 5 models favor the Seahawks.
On average the models have the Seahawks by 0.8 points, a 53% win chance.
Updated until kickoff, then frozen.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
Weather at kickoff: 47°F, wind 12 mph from the north, 23% chance of rain.
Forecast: National Weather Service, read Tue, Oct 13 · 10:50 PM CT.
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Seahawks by 0.8 | 53% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Broncos by 0.7 | 52% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Seahawks by 1.1 | 54% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Seahawks by 1.5 | 54% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Seahawks by 1.4 | 56% |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Broncos | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Seahawks by 2.5 | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of .
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 6; league rank in brackets.
| Seahawks | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.03 (12th) | +0.03 (11th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.05 (25th) | −0.02 (16th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.09 (2nd) | −0.05 (5th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.06 (16th) | −0.01 (23rd) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.21 (30th) | −0.03 (10th) |
| Offense success rate | 42% (22nd) | 41% (24th) |
The Seahawks won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 8, 2024Week 1, 2024 | Seahawks 26, Broncos 20at Seattle |
| Sep 12, 2022Week 1, 2022 | Seahawks 17, Broncos 16at Seattle |
| Sep 9, 2018Week 1, 2018 | Broncos 27, Seahawks 24at Denver |
| Sep 21, 2014Week 3, 2014 | Seahawks 26, Broncos 20at Seattle |
| Feb 2, 2014Super Bowl, 2013 | Seahawks 43, Broncos 8neutral site |