4–1, 1st in the AFC East; offense top 10, defense bottom 10.
The Bills are 4–1 in 2026, 0–1 against the AFC East.
By opponent-adjusted EPA per play the Bills' offense ranks 1st (+0.17) and their defense 31st (+0.11 allowed); 9th of 32 by net (+0.06).
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18 · 3:25 PM CT on CBS
Our call: Bills Lean
5 of 5 models favor the Bills. On average the models have the Bills by 4.8 points, a 66% win chance.
Every model, the quarterbacks and the matchup →
TV listings: ESPN
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours. League-wide news →
| Team | Record | In the division |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 4–1 | 0–1 |
| New England Patriots | 3–2 | 1–0 |
| New York Jets | 2–3 | 0–0 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0–5 | 0–0 |
By winning percentage (a tie counts half), then the NFL's division tiebreakers as our standings apply them.
| Week | Opponent | Result | Our call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1Sun, Sep 13 · CBS | at Texans | W 36–31 | Texans Toss-up · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 2Thu, Sep 17 · Prime Video | vs Lions | W 41–31 | Bills Lean · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 3Sun, Sep 27 · Fox | vs Chargers | W 24–16 | Bills Strong · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 4Sun, Oct 4 · CBS | vs Patriots | L 26–29 | Bills Lean · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 5Mon, Oct 12 · ESPN and ABC | at Rams | W 37–34 (OT) | Rams Toss-up · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 6Sun, Oct 18 · CBS | at Raiders | — | Bills Lean | Game page |
| Week 7 | Bye | |||
| Week 8Sun, Nov 1 · CBS | vs Ravens | — | Bills Lean | Game page |
| Week 9Mon, Nov 9 · ESPN and ABC | at Vikings | — | Vikings Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 10Sun, Nov 15 · CBS | at Jets | — | Bills Lean | Game page |
| Week 11Sun, Nov 22 · Fox | vs Dolphins | — | Bills Strong | Game page |
| Week 12Thu, Nov 26 · NBC | vs Chiefs | — | Bills Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 13Sun, Dec 6 · CBS | at Patriots | — | Patriots Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 14Sun, Dec 13 · NBC | at Packers | — | Bills Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 15Sat, Dec 19 · CBS | vs Bears | — | Bills Lean | Game page |
| Week 16Fri, Dec 25 · Netflix | at Broncos | — | Bills Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 17Sun, Jan 3 · CBS | at Dolphins | — | Bills Lean | Game page |
| Week 18Sun, Jan 10 | vs Jets | — | Bills Strong | Game page |
Our call is the team the consensus of our models favored before kickoff, never changed after it; ✓ when that team won, ✗ when it lost. Each game page shows every model.
TV listings: ESPN
2026 regular season through Week 5, from nflverse's player stats: the Bills players above the leaders page's marks per team game.
| Player | Yardspassing | Attempts | Completedof attempts | TD | INT | EPAper dropback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB | 1,249 | 138 | 66% | 7 | 4 | +0.29 |
| Player | Yardsrushing | Carries | Yardsper carry | TDrushing | Targets | Share ofteam targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James CookRB | 532 | 95 | 5.6 | 5 | 11 | 8.5% |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil ShakirWR | 256 | 18 | 26 | 20% | 169 | 0 |
| Keon ColemanWR | 224 | 15 | 18 | 14% | 255 | 2 |
| DJ MooreWR | 178 | 12 | 20 | 15% | 303 | 1 |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton KincaidTE | 277 | 16 | 21 | 16% | 256 | 1 |
| Player | Tackles | For loss | Sacks | INT | Passesdefended | Fumblesforced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian WilliamsLB | 41 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cole BishopSAF | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrel BernardLB | 36 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Christian BenfordCB | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSAF | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Davison IgbinosunCB | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Greg RousseauLB | 20 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Bradley ChubbOLB | 17 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deone WalkerDT | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Dee AlfordCB | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Top 10 by tackles.
| Player | FG made | FG tried | Longestyards | Extra pointsmade | Extra pointstried |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler BassK | 9 | 9 | 49 | 15 | 17 |
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, 2026 regular season to date; league rank of 32 beside each.
| Bills | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.17 | 1st |
| Offense, success rate | 48% | 2nd |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.28 | 2nd |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | +0.01 | 4th |
What the defense allowed, opponent-adjusted, 2026 regular season to date; 1st allowed the least. Net is offense minus defense.
| Bills | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Defense, EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | 31st |
| Defense, success rate allowed | 47% | 30th |
| Pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed | +0.18 | 27th |
| Run defense, EPA per run allowed | −0.02 | 29th |
| Net EPA per play (offense minus defense) | +0.06 | 9th |
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Our call had the winner in 2 of 5 Bills games (40%).
| Model | Games | Winner right | Rate | Average miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call) | 5 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 4.9 |
| Our model Experimental | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 4.7 |
| Elo | 5 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 4.9 |
| SRS | 5 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 5.8 |
| ESPN FPI | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 4.7 |
| Record | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | — |
Winner right: games where the model favored the team that won (a tie counts half). Average miss: points between the model's margin and the final margin. Weeks 1–4 reconstructed: worked out afterwards from data before each week. Every game, every team →
Likely in: the Bills reach the playoffs in 90% of our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season and win the AFC East in 56%; their average finish is 11–6.
In the race for the 2027 draft: the Bills get the #1 pick in 0% of the simulations and a top-5 pick in <1%. Draft order →
After Week 5's games; simulated Tue, Oct 13 · 6:05 PM CT. The rest of the season is played out 20,000 times, each game with our call's win chance; the NFL's tiebreakers are applied in simplified form (no points or touchdown steps). How the simulation works →