3 of 4 models favor the Patriots.
On average the models have the Patriots by 1.6 points, a 55% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Patriots by 1.6 | 55% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Patriots by 1.4 | 54% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Patriots by 0.3 | 51% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Patriots by 3.2 | 59% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Bills | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 13's first kickoff.
The official Week 13 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Bills | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.06 (9th) | +0.06 (8th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.17 (1st) | +0.04 (12th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.11 (31st) | −0.03 (12th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.28 (2nd) | +0.14 (10th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | +0.01 (4th) | −0.12 (20th) |
| Offense success rate | 48% (2nd) | 45% (13th) |
The Patriots won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Oct 4, 2026Week 4, 2026 | Patriots 29, Bills 26at Buffalo |
| Dec 14, 2025Week 15, 2025 | Bills 35, Patriots 31at New England |
| Oct 5, 2025Week 5, 2025 | Patriots 23, Bills 20at Buffalo |
| Jan 5, 2025Week 18, 2024 | Patriots 23, Bills 16at New England |
| Dec 22, 2024Week 16, 2024 | Bills 24, Patriots 21at Buffalo |