3–2, 2nd in the AFC East; offense and defense both in the middle of the league.
The Patriots are 3–2 in 2026, 1–0 against the AFC East.
By opponent-adjusted EPA per play the Patriots' offense ranks 12th (+0.04) and their defense 12th (−0.03 allowed); 8th of 32 by net (+0.06).
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18 · 12:00 PM CT on CBS
Our call: Patriots Strong
5 of 5 models favor the Patriots. On average the models have the Patriots by 8.2 points, a 75% win chance.
Every model, the quarterbacks and the matchup →
TV listings: ESPN
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours. League-wide news →
| Team | Record | In the division |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 4–1 | 0–1 |
| New England Patriots | 3–2 | 1–0 |
| New York Jets | 2–3 | 0–0 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0–5 | 0–0 |
By winning percentage (a tie counts half), then the NFL's division tiebreakers as our standings apply them.
| Week | Opponent | Result | Our call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1Wed, Sep 9 · NBC | at Seahawks | L 10–13 | Seahawks Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 2Sun, Sep 20 · CBS | vs Steelers | W 20–3 | Patriots Lean · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 3Sun, Sep 27 · CBS | at Jaguars | L 6–35 | Jaguars Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 4Sun, Oct 4 · CBS | at Bills | W 29–26 | Bills Lean · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 5Sun, Oct 11 · CBS | vs Raiders | W 45–17 | Patriots Lean · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 6Sun, Oct 18 · CBS | vs Jets | — | Patriots Strong | Game page |
| Week 7Thu, Oct 22 · Prime Video | at Bears | — | Patriots Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 8Sun, Nov 1 · CBS | at Dolphins | — | Patriots Lean | Game page |
| Week 9Sun, Nov 8 · Fox | vs Packers | — | Patriots Lean | Game page |
| Week 10Sun, Nov 15 · Fox | vs Lionsneutral site | — | Patriots Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 11 | Bye | |||
| Week 12Sun, Nov 29 · NBC | at Chargers | — | Patriots Lean | Game page |
| Week 13Sun, Dec 6 · CBS | vs Bills | — | Patriots Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 14Thu, Dec 10 · Prime Video | vs Vikings | — | Patriots Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 15Mon, Dec 21 · ESPN and ABC | at Chiefs | — | Chiefs Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 16Sun, Dec 27 · CBS | at Jets | — | Patriots Lean | Game page |
| Week 17Sun, Jan 3 | vs Broncos | — | Patriots Lean | Game page |
| Week 18Sun, Jan 10 | vs Dolphins | — | Patriots Strong | Game page |
Our call is the team the consensus of our models favored before kickoff, never changed after it; ✓ when that team won, ✗ when it lost. Each game page shows every model.
TV listings: ESPN
2026 regular season through Week 5, from nflverse's player stats: the Patriots players above the leaders page's marks per team game.
| Player | Yardspassing | Attempts | Completedof attempts | TD | INT | EPAper dropback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeQB | 1,228 | 151 | 66% | 8 | 7 | +0.13 |
| Player | Yardsrushing | Carries | Yardsper carry | TDrushing | Targets | Share ofteam targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | 227 | 57 | 4.0 | 2 | 19 | 13% |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB | 163 | 42 | 3.9 | 1 | 4 | 2.7% |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo DoubsWR | 219 | 13 | 23 | 15% | 381 | 2 |
| Mack HollinsWR | 209 | 15 | 20 | 13% | 297 | 0 |
| DeMario DouglasWR | 147 | 13 | 22 | 15% | 257 | 2 |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter HenryTE | 177 | 15 | 19 | 13% | 137 | 1 |
| Player | Tackles | For loss | Sacks | INT | Passesdefended | Fumblesforced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert SpillaneLB | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian EllissLB | 32 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Charles WoodsCB | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Elijah PonderLB | 19 | 6 | 4.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin ByardFS | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Marcus JonesCB | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Craig WoodsonSAF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis IIICB | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Gabe JacasLB | 16 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Milton WilliamsDT | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top 10 by tackles.
| Player | FG made | FG tried | Longestyards | Extra pointsmade | Extra pointstried |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy BorregalesK | 6 | 8 | 50 | 12 | 12 |
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, 2026 regular season to date; league rank of 32 beside each.
| Patriots | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.04 | 12th |
| Offense, success rate | 45% | 13th |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.14 | 10th |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.12 | 20th |
What the defense allowed, opponent-adjusted, 2026 regular season to date; 1st allowed the least. Net is offense minus defense.
| Patriots | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Defense, EPA per play allowed | −0.03 | 12th |
| Defense, success rate allowed | 42% | 9th |
| Pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed | −0.04 | 3rd |
| Run defense, EPA per run allowed | −0.01 | 30th |
| Net EPA per play (offense minus defense) | +0.06 | 8th |
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Our call had the winner in 4 of 5 Patriots games (80%).
| Model | Games | Winner right | Rate | Average miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call) | 5 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 14.2 |
| Our model Experimental | 5 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 14.8 |
| Elo | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 14.3 |
| SRS | 5 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 14.5 |
| ESPN FPI | 5 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 14.7 |
| Record | 5 | 2 of 5 | 40% | — |
Winner right: games where the model favored the team that won (a tie counts half). Average miss: points between the model's margin and the final margin. Weeks 1–4 reconstructed: worked out afterwards from data before each week. Every game, every team →
Likely in: the Patriots reach the playoffs in 84% of our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season and win the AFC East in 43%; their average finish is 11–6.
In the race for the 2027 draft: the Patriots get the #1 pick in 0% of the simulations and a top-5 pick in <1%. Draft order →
After Week 5's games; simulated Tue, Oct 13 · 6:05 PM CT. The rest of the season is played out 20,000 times, each game with our call's win chance; the NFL's tiebreakers are applied in simplified form (no points or touchdown steps). How the simulation works →