5 of 5 models favor the Bills.
On average the models have the Bills by 3.8 points, a 63% win chance.
Final: Patriots 29, Bills 26.
Closest: SRS (Bills by 2.2, missed by 5.2). 0 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 4 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Patriots won 29–26. Maye threw for 269 yards and 3 touchdowns. Our call (Bills, Lean) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Patriots | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 405 | 340 |
| Passing yards | 262 | 249 |
| Rushing yards | 143 | 91 |
| Sacked | 1 (7 yards) | 1 (4 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Bills by 3.8 ✗ | 63% | 6.8 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Bills by 2.8 ✗ | 59% | 5.8 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Bills by 4.5 ✗ | 66% | 7.5 |
| SRS ClosestSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Bills by 2.2 ✗ | 56% | 5.2 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Bills by 5.7 ✗ | 70% | 8.7 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Bills ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Bills by 7 | — | 10.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 4 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
And 2 more on the report.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 4; league rank in brackets.
| Patriots | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.03 (21st) | +0.05 (11th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.05 (26th) | +0.13 (2nd) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.02 (8th) | +0.08 (30th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.01 (23rd) | +0.21 (2nd) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.12 (23rd) | +0.02 (2nd) |
| Offense success rate | 42% (20th) | 48% (3rd) |
The Bills won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 14, 2025Week 15, 2025 | Bills 35, Patriots 31at New England |
| Oct 5, 2025Week 5, 2025 | Patriots 23, Bills 20at Buffalo |
| Jan 5, 2025Week 18, 2024 | Patriots 23, Bills 16at New England |
| Dec 22, 2024Week 16, 2024 | Bills 24, Patriots 21at Buffalo |
| Dec 31, 2023Week 17, 2023 | Bills 27, Patriots 21at Buffalo |