Our call for every Week 4 game: the team the consensus of our models favors, how confident it is, and how many models agree. Our call had the winner in 11 of 16 games this week.
Reconstructed: Week 4 came before these pages existed, so these predictions were worked out afterwards from data before the week. The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it Tue, Oct 13 · 11:56 AM CT .
Steelers at Browns Thu, Oct 1 · 7:15 PM CT · Final: Browns 27, Steelers 24. Our call: Steelers Toss-up 3 of 5 models favor the Steelers. Our call was wrong. Closest: SRS.
Colts at Commanders Sun, Oct 4 · 8:30 AM CT · neutral site · Final: Colts 30, Commanders 13. Our call: Colts Toss-up 3 of 5 models favor the Colts. Our call was right. Closest of our models: SRS.
Cardinals at Giants Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Giants 36, Cardinals 24. Our call: Giants Toss-up 3 of 5 models favor the Giants. Our call was right. Closest: Elo.
Cowboys at Texans Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Cowboys 34, Texans 30. Our call: Texans Toss-up 2 of 5 models favor the Texans. Our call was wrong. Closest: ESPN FPI.
Packers at Buccaneers Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Packers 17, Buccaneers 14. Our call: Packers Toss-up 3 of 5 models favor the Packers. Our call was right. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI.
Jaguars at Bengals Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Jaguars 22, Bengals 17. Our call: Jaguars Toss-up 3 of 5 models favor the Jaguars. Our call was right. Closest: SRS.
Rams at Eagles Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Rams 24, Eagles 20. Our call: Rams Toss-up 3 of 5 models favor the Rams. Our call was right. Closest: ESPN FPI.
Patriots at Bills Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Patriots 29, Bills 26. Our call: Bills Lean 5 of 5 models favor the Bills. Our call was wrong. Closest: SRS.
Jets at Bears Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Bears 23, Jets 12. Our call: Bears Lean 4 of 5 models favor the Bears. Our call was right. Closest: SRS.
Titans at Ravens Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Ravens 24, Titans 18. Our call: Ravens Strong 5 of 5 models favor the Ravens. Our call was right. Closest: Our model.
Dolphins at Vikings Sun, Oct 4 · 3:05 PM CT · Final: Vikings 15, Dolphins 10. Our call: Vikings Strong 5 of 5 models favor the Vikings. Our call was right. Closest: Our model.
Broncos at 49ers Sun, Oct 4 · 3:25 PM CT · Final: 49ers 24, Broncos 14. Our call: 49ers Lean 5 of 5 models favor the 49ers. Our call was right. Closest: ESPN FPI.
Chiefs at Raiders Sun, Oct 4 · 3:25 PM CT · Final: Chiefs 30, Raiders 27. Our call: Chiefs Lean 4 of 5 models favor the Chiefs. Our call was right. Closest: Elo.
Chargers at Seahawks Sun, Oct 4 · 3:25 PM CT · Final: Seahawks 30, Chargers 23. Our call: Seahawks Strong 5 of 5 models favor the Seahawks. Our call was right. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI.
Lions at Panthers Sun, Oct 4 · 7:20 PM CT · Final: Panthers 32, Lions 26. Our call: Lions Toss-up 4 of 5 models favor the Lions. Our call was wrong. Closest: SRS.
Falcons at Saints Mon, Oct 5 · 7:15 PM CT · Final: Falcons 45, Saints 24. Our call: Saints Toss-up 5 of 5 models favor the Saints. Our call was wrong. Closest: Our model.
Top performers this week
Over the week's finished games. Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards. Player stats: nflverse (CC BY 4.0).
Our own model is experimental: season so far it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8. Each game page shows every model.