4 of 5 models favor the Lions.
On average the models have the Lions by 1.3 points, a 55% win chance.
Final: Panthers 32, Lions 26.
Closest: SRS (Panthers by 1.1, missed by 4.9). 1 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 4 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Panthers won 32–26. Young threw for 329 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (Lions, Toss-up) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Lions | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 452 | 445 |
| Passing yards | 406 | 318 |
| Rushing yards | 46 | 127 |
| Sacked | 1 (6 yards) | 3 (11 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Lions by 1.3 ✗ | 55% | 7.3 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Lions by 0.2 ✗ | 51% | 6.2 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Lions by 2.9 ✗ | 60% | 8.9 |
| SRS ClosestSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Panthers by 1.1 ✓ | 53% | 4.9 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Lions by 3 ✗ | 61% | 9.0 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Lions ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Lions by 4.5 | — | 10.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 4 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 4; league rank in brackets.
| Lions | Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.01 (17th) | +0.06 (9th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.07 (8th) | +0.05 (11th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.08 (29th) | −0.01 (13th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.17 (7th) | +0.14 (10th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.09 (18th) | −0.12 (21st) |
| Offense success rate | 46% (7th) | 43% (16th) |
The Panthers won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Oct 8, 2023Week 5, 2023 | Lions 42, Panthers 24at Detroit |
| Dec 24, 2022Week 16, 2022 | Panthers 37, Lions 23at Carolina |
| Nov 22, 2020Week 11, 2020 | Panthers 20, Lions 0at Carolina |
| Nov 18, 2018Week 11, 2018 | Lions 20, Panthers 19at Detroit |
| Oct 8, 2017Week 5, 2017 | Panthers 27, Lions 24at Detroit |