5–0, 1st in the NFC West; offense top 10, defense middle of the league.
The 49ers are 5–0 in 2026, 3–0 against the NFC West.
By opponent-adjusted EPA per play the 49ers' offense ranks 2nd (+0.16) and their defense 11th (−0.03 allowed); 1st of 32 by net (+0.19).
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
Week 6 · Mon, Oct 19 · 7:15 PM CT on ESPN and ABC
Our call: 49ers Strong
5 of 5 models favor the 49ers. On average the models have the 49ers by 10.9 points, a 82% win chance.
Every model, the quarterbacks and the matchup →
TV listings: ESPN
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours. League-wide news →
| Team | Record | In the division |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 5–0 | 3–0 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3–2 | 1–1 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 2–3 | 0–1 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 1–4 | 0–2 |
By winning percentage (a tie counts half), then the NFL's division tiebreakers as our standings apply them.
| Week | Opponent | Result | Our call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1Thu, Sep 10 · Netflix | vs Ramsneutral site | W 27–7 | Rams Toss-up · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 2Sun, Sep 20 · Fox | vs Dolphins | W 35–13 | 49ers Strong · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 3Sun, Sep 27 · Fox | vs Cardinals | W 36–30 | 49ers Strong · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 4Sun, Oct 4 · CBS | vs Broncos | W 24–14 | 49ers Lean · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 5Sun, Oct 11 · Fox | at Seahawks | W 32–29 | 49ers Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 6Mon, Oct 19 · ESPN and ABC | vs Commanders | — | 49ers Strong | Game page |
| Week 7Sun, Oct 25 · Fox | at Falcons | — | 49ers Lean | Game page |
| Week 8 | Bye | |||
| Week 9Sun, Nov 8 · CBS | vs Raiders | — | 49ers Strong | Game page |
| Week 10Sun, Nov 15 · Fox | at Cowboys | — | 49ers Lean | Game page |
| Week 11Sun, Nov 22 · NBC | vs Vikingsneutral site | — | 49ers Lean | Game page |
| Week 12Sun, Nov 29 · Fox | vs Seahawks | — | 49ers Lean | Game page |
| Week 13Sun, Dec 6 · Fox | at Giants | — | 49ers Lean | Game page |
| Week 14Sun, Dec 13 · Fox | vs Rams | — | 49ers Lean | Game page |
| Week 15Thu, Dec 17 · Prime Video | at Chargers | — | 49ers Strong | Game page |
| Week 16Sun, Dec 27 · CBS | at Chiefs | — | 49ers Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 17Sun, Jan 3 · NBC | vs Eagles | — | 49ers Strong | Game page |
| Week 18Sun, Jan 10 | at Cardinals | — | 49ers Strong | Game page |
Our call is the team the consensus of our models favored before kickoff, never changed after it; ✓ when that team won, ✗ when it lost. Each game page shows every model.
TV listings: ESPN
2026 regular season through Week 5, from nflverse's player stats: the 49ers players above the leaders page's marks per team game.
| Player | Yardspassing | Attempts | Completedof attempts | TD | INT | EPAper dropback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock PurdyQB | 1,196 | 142 | 69% | 13 | 2 | +0.40 |
| Player | Yardsrushing | Carries | Yardsper carry | TDrushing | Targets | Share ofteam targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB | 286 | 61 | 4.7 | 5 | 25 | 18% |
| Kaelon BlackRB | 136 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 | 2 | 1.5% |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike EvansWR | 326 | 24 | 34 | 25% | 472 | 3 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr.WR | 206 | 16 | 20 | 15% | 51 | 3 |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George KittleTE | 268 | 21 | 28 | 20% | 213 | 4 |
| Player | Tackles | For loss | Sacks | INT | Passesdefended | Fumblesforced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred WarnerMLB | 50 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Dre GreenlawLB | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ji'Ayir BrownSAF | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Marques SigleSAF | 26 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Renardo GreenCB | 22 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Deommodore LenoirCB | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jaden DuggerLB | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik MustaphaSAF | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Upton StoutCB | 16 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Gracen HaltonDT | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Top 10 by tackles.
| Player | FG made | FG tried | Longestyards | Extra pointsmade | Extra pointstried |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddy PineiroK | 5 | 8 | 57 | 17 | 19 |
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, 2026 regular season to date; league rank of 32 beside each.
| 49ers | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.16 | 2nd |
| Offense, success rate | 51% | 1st |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.31 | 1st |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.05 | 14th |
What the defense allowed, opponent-adjusted, 2026 regular season to date; 1st allowed the least. Net is offense minus defense.
| 49ers | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Defense, EPA per play allowed | −0.03 | 11th |
| Defense, success rate allowed | 43% | 12th |
| Pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed | +0.05 | 18th |
| Run defense, EPA per run allowed | −0.15 | 5th |
| Net EPA per play (offense minus defense) | +0.19 | 1st |
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Our call had the winner in 4 of 5 49ers games (80%).
| Model | Games | Winner right | Rate | Average miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call) | 5 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 9.2 |
| Our model Experimental | 5 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 8.0 |
| Elo | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 10.7 |
| SRS | 5 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 9.7 |
| ESPN FPI | 5 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 8.3 |
| Record | 5 | 4 of 5 | 80% | — |
Winner right: games where the model favored the team that won (a tie counts half). Average miss: points between the model's margin and the final margin. Weeks 1–4 reconstructed: worked out afterwards from data before each week. Every game, every team →
Very likely in: the 49ers reach the playoffs in 99% of our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season and win the NFC West in 87%; their average finish is 13–4.
After Week 5's games; simulated Tue, Oct 13 · 6:05 PM CT. The rest of the season is played out 20,000 times, each game with our call's win chance; the NFL's tiebreakers are applied in simplified form (no points or touchdown steps). How the simulation works →