2–3, tied for 2nd in the NFC East; offense top 10, defense bottom 10.
The Cowboys are 2–3 in 2026, 1–1 against the NFC East.
By opponent-adjusted EPA per play the Cowboys' offense ranks 6th (+0.10) and their defense 32nd (+0.16 allowed); 23rd of 32 by net (−0.06).
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18 · 7:20 PM CT on NBC
Our call: Packers Toss-up
4 of 5 models favor the Packers. On average the models have the Packers by 2.5 points, a 58% win chance.
Every model, the quarterbacks and the matchup →
TV listings: ESPN
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours. League-wide news →
| Team | Record | In the division |
|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 3–1–1 | 1–0–1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2–3 | 1–0 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 2–3 | 1–1 |
| Washington Commanders | 1–3–1 | 0–2–1 |
By winning percentage (a tie counts half), then the NFL's division tiebreakers as our standings apply them.
| Week | Opponent | Result | Our call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1Sun, Sep 13 · NBC | at Giants | L 20–28 | Cowboys Toss-up · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 2Sun, Sep 20 · Fox | vs Commanders | W 37–20 | Cowboys Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 3Sun, Sep 27 · CBS | vs Ravensneutral site | L 31–34 | Ravens Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 4Sun, Oct 4 · Fox | at Texans | W 34–30 | Texans Toss-up · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 5Thu, Oct 8 · Prime Video | vs Buccaneers | L 16–24 | Cowboys Lean · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 6Sun, Oct 18 · NBC | at Packers | — | Packers Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 7Mon, Oct 26 · ESPN, ABC and Disney+ | at Eagles | — | Eagles Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 8Sun, Nov 1 · Fox | vs Cardinals | — | Cowboys Lean | Game page |
| Week 9Sun, Nov 8 · Fox | at Colts | — | Colts Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 10Sun, Nov 15 · Fox | vs 49ers | — | 49ers Lean | Game page |
| Week 11Sun, Nov 22 · Fox | vs Titans | — | Cowboys Strong | Game page |
| Week 12Thu, Nov 26 · Fox | vs Eagles | — | Cowboys Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 13Mon, Dec 7 · ESPN and ABC | at Seahawks | — | Seahawks Lean | Game page |
| Week 14 | Bye | |||
| Week 15Sun, Dec 20 · CBS | at Rams | — | Rams Lean | Game page |
| Week 16Sun, Dec 27 · NBC | vs Jaguars | — | Jaguars Lean | Game page |
| Week 17Sun, Jan 3 · Fox | vs Giants | — | Cowboys Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 18Sun, Jan 10 | at Commanders | — | Cowboys Toss-up | Game page |
Our call is the team the consensus of our models favored before kickoff, never changed after it; ✓ when that team won, ✗ when it lost. Each game page shows every model.
TV listings: ESPN
2026 regular season through Week 5, from nflverse's player stats: the Cowboys players above the leaders page's marks per team game.
| Player | Yardspassing | Attempts | Completedof attempts | TD | INT | EPAper dropback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak PrescottQB | 1,381 | 192 | 67% | 9 | 3 | +0.23 |
| Player | Yardsrushing | Carries | Yardsper carry | TDrushing | Targets | Share ofteam targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte WilliamsRB | 276 | 74 | 3.7 | 6 | 20 | 11% |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee LambWR | 507 | 39 | 51 | 27% | 526 | 4 |
| George PickensWR | 355 | 27 | 41 | 22% | 467 | 1 |
| Ryan FlournoyWR | 194 | 16 | 27 | 15% | 173 | 0 |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake FergusonTE | 102 | 15 | 21 | 11% | 94 | 3 |
| Player | Tackles | For loss | Sacks | INT | Passesdefended | Fumblesforced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dee WintersLB | 35 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caleb DownsSAF | 31 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jaishawn BarhamLB | 28 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Donovan EzeiruakuLB | 26 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| DaRon BlandCB | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Markquese BellSAF | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jalen ThompsonDB | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Otito OgbonniaDT | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen WilliamsDT | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rashan GaryLB | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top 10 by tackles.
| Player | FG made | FG tried | Longestyards | Extra pointsmade | Extra pointstried |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon AubreyK | 9 | 12 | 60 | 13 | 14 |
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, 2026 regular season to date; league rank of 32 beside each.
| Cowboys | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.10 | 6th |
| Offense, success rate | 47% | 3rd |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.16 | 6th |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.01 | 5th |
What the defense allowed, opponent-adjusted, 2026 regular season to date; 1st allowed the least. Net is offense minus defense.
| Cowboys | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Defense, EPA per play allowed | +0.16 | 32nd |
| Defense, success rate allowed | 50% | 32nd |
| Pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed | +0.32 | 32nd |
| Run defense, EPA per run allowed | −0.04 | 24th |
| Net EPA per play (offense minus defense) | −0.06 | 23rd |
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Our call had the winner in 2 of 5 Cowboys games (40%).
| Model | Games | Winner right | Rate | Average miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call) | 5 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 8.7 |
| Our model Experimental | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 8.9 |
| Elo | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 8.9 |
| SRS | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 7.7 |
| ESPN FPI | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 9.4 |
| Record | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | — |
Winner right: games where the model favored the team that won (a tie counts half). Average miss: points between the model's margin and the final margin. Weeks 1–4 reconstructed: worked out afterwards from data before each week. Every game, every team →
Outside looking in: the Cowboys reach the playoffs in 27% of our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season and win the NFC East in 23%; their average finish is 8–9.
In the race for the 2027 draft: the Cowboys get the #1 pick in <1% of the simulations and a top-5 pick in 11%. Draft order →
After Week 5's games; simulated Tue, Oct 13 · 6:05 PM CT. The rest of the season is played out 20,000 times, each game with our call's win chance; the NFL's tiebreakers are applied in simplified form (no points or touchdown steps). How the simulation works →