5 of 5 models favor the Cowboys.
On average the models have the Cowboys by 2.6 points, a 58% win chance.
Final: Cowboys 37, Commanders 20.
Closest: ESPN FPI (Cowboys by 4.1, missed by 12.9). 5 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 2 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Cowboys won 37–20. Prescott threw for 279 yards and 4 touchdowns. Our call (Cowboys, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Commanders | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 389 | 332 |
| Passing yards | 207 | 266 |
| Rushing yards | 182 | 66 |
| Sacked | 0 | 2 (13 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Cowboys by 2.6 ✓ | 58% | 14.4 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Cowboys by 3.5 ✓ | 61% | 13.5 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Cowboys by 0.9 ✓ | 53% | 16.1 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Cowboys by 1.9 ✓ | 56% | 15.1 |
| ESPN FPI ClosestESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Cowboys by 4.1 ✓ | 65% | 12.9 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Cowboys ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Cowboys by 3.5 | — | 13.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 2 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 2; league rank in brackets.
| Commanders | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.01 (14th) | −0.04 (24th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.03 (12th) | +0.06 (6th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.03 (19th) | +0.10 (31st) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.09 (12th) | +0.12 (7th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.04 (13th) | −0.03 (11th) |
| Offense success rate | 44% (16th) | 45% (12th) |
The Cowboys won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 25, 2025Week 17, 2025 | Cowboys 30, Commanders 23at Washington |
| Oct 19, 2025Week 7, 2025 | Cowboys 44, Commanders 22at Dallas |
| Jan 5, 2025Week 18, 2024 | Commanders 23, Cowboys 19at Dallas |
| Nov 24, 2024Week 12, 2024 | Cowboys 34, Commanders 26at Washington |
| Jan 7, 2024Week 18, 2023 | Cowboys 38, Commanders 10at Washington |