1–3–1, 4th in the NFC East; offense middle of the league, defense bottom 10.
The Commanders are 1–3–1 in 2026, 0–2–1 against the NFC East.
By opponent-adjusted EPA per play the Commanders' offense ranks 21st (−0.04) and their defense 25th (+0.06 allowed); 26th of 32 by net (−0.09).
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
Week 6 · Mon, Oct 19 · 7:15 PM CT on ESPN and ABC
Our call: 49ers Strong
5 of 5 models favor the 49ers. On average the models have the 49ers by 10.9 points, a 82% win chance.
Every model, the quarterbacks and the matchup →
TV listings: ESPN
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours. League-wide news →
| Team | Record | In the division |
|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 3–1–1 | 1–0–1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2–3 | 1–0 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 2–3 | 1–1 |
| Washington Commanders | 1–3–1 | 0–2–1 |
By winning percentage (a tie counts half), then the NFL's division tiebreakers as our standings apply them.
| Week | Opponent | Result | Our call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1Sun, Sep 13 · Fox | at Eagles | L 22–24 | Eagles Lean · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 2Sun, Sep 20 · Fox | at Cowboys | L 20–37 | Cowboys Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 3Sun, Sep 27 · Fox | vs Seahawks | W 33–31 | Seahawks Lean · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 4Sun, Oct 4 · NFL Network | vs Coltsneutral site | L 13–30 | Colts Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 5Sun, Oct 11 · Fox | vs Giants | T 27–27 (OT) | Commanders Toss-up · ½ | Game page |
| Week 6Mon, Oct 19 · ESPN and ABC | at 49ers | — | 49ers Strong | Game page |
| Week 7 | Bye | |||
| Week 8Sun, Nov 1 · NBC | vs Eagles | — | Eagles Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 9Sun, Nov 8 · Fox | vs Rams | — | Rams Lean | Game page |
| Week 10Thu, Nov 12 · Prime Video | at Giants | — | Giants Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 11Mon, Nov 23 · ESPN | vs Bengals | — | Bengals Lean | Game page |
| Week 12Sun, Nov 29 · Fox | at Cardinals | — | Cardinals Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 13Sun, Dec 6 · CBS | at Titans | — | Commanders Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 14Sun, Dec 13 · CBS | vs Texans | — | Texans Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 15Sun, Dec 20 · Fox | vs Falcons | — | Falcons Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 16Sun, Dec 27 | at Vikings | — | Vikings Strong | Game page |
| Week 17Sun, Jan 3 | at Jaguars | — | Jaguars Strong | Game page |
| Week 18Sun, Jan 10 | vs Cowboys | — | Cowboys Toss-up | Game page |
Our call is the team the consensus of our models favored before kickoff, never changed after it; ✓ when that team won, ✗ when it lost. Each game page shows every model.
TV listings: ESPN
2026 regular season through Week 5, from nflverse's player stats: the Commanders players above the leaders page's marks per team game.
| Player | Yardspassing | Attempts | Completedof attempts | TD | INT | EPAper dropback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden DanielsQB | 459 | 76 | 61% | 3 | 0 | +0.02 |
| Player | Yardsrushing | Carries | Yardsper carry | TDrushing | Targets | Share ofteam targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB | 239 | 67 | 3.6 | 2 | 7 | 4.6% |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurinWR | 203 | 14 | 26 | 17% | 324 | 1 |
| Stefon DiggsWR | 170 | 18 | 31 | 20% | 280 | 3 |
| Antonio WilliamsWR | 155 | 15 | 22 | 14% | 239 | 1 |
| Player | Tackles | For loss | Sacks | INT | Passesdefended | Fumblesforced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy ReavesDB | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Amik RobertsonCB | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 |
| Sonny StylesLB | 33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Quan MartinSAF | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul DouglasCB | 23 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Frankie LuvuLB | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo ChenalLB | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike SainristilCB | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron PayneNT | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Javon KinlawDT | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Top 10 by tackles.
| Player | FG made | FG tried | Longestyards | Extra pointsmade | Extra pointstried |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew StevensK | 9 | 11 | 57 | 8 | 11 |
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, 2026 regular season to date; league rank of 32 beside each.
| Commanders | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.04 | 21st |
| Offense, success rate | 40% | 28th |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.03 | 19th |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.14 | 23rd |
What the defense allowed, opponent-adjusted, 2026 regular season to date; 1st allowed the least. Net is offense minus defense.
| Commanders | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Defense, EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | 25th |
| Defense, success rate allowed | 47% | 28th |
| Pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed | +0.16 | 26th |
| Run defense, EPA per run allowed | −0.15 | 6th |
| Net EPA per play (offense minus defense) | −0.09 | 26th |
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Our call had the winner in 3.5 of 5 Commanders games (70%).
| Model | Games | Winner right | Rate | Average miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call) | 5 | 3.5 of 5 | 70% | 8.2 |
| Our model Experimental | 5 | 4.5 of 5 | 90% | 6.1 |
| Elo | 5 | 2.5 of 4 | 62% | 9.6 |
| SRS | 5 | 3.5 of 5 | 70% | 9.2 |
| ESPN FPI | 5 | 3.5 of 5 | 70% | 9.2 |
| Record | 5 | 2.5 of 5 | 50% | — |
Winner right: games where the model favored the team that won (a tie counts half). Average miss: points between the model's margin and the final margin. Weeks 1–4 reconstructed: worked out afterwards from data before each week. Every game, every team →
A long shot: the Commanders reach the playoffs in 9% of our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season and win the NFC East in 7%; their average finish is 6–10–1.
In the race for the 2027 draft: the Commanders get the #1 pick in 2% of the simulations and a top-5 pick in 31%. Draft order →
After Week 5's games; simulated Tue, Oct 13 · 6:05 PM CT. The rest of the season is played out 20,000 times, each game with our call's win chance; the NFL's tiebreakers are applied in simplified form (no points or touchdown steps). How the simulation works →