4 of 5 models favor the Seahawks.
On average the models have the Seahawks by 5.6 points, a 67% win chance.
Final: Commanders 33, Seahawks 31.
Closest: Our model (Commanders by 3.4, missed by 1.4). 1 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 3 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Commanders won 33–31. Mariota threw for 183 yards and 3 touchdowns. Our call (Seahawks, Lean) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Seahawks | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 437 | 258 |
| Passing yards | 393 | 176 |
| Rushing yards | 44 | 82 |
| Sacked | 0 | 2 (7 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Seahawks by 5.6 ✗ | 67% | 7.6 |
| Our model Experimental ClosestOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Commanders by 3.4 ✓ | 60% | 1.4 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Seahawks by 9.1 ✗ | 79% | 11.1 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Seahawks by 9.5 ✗ | 76% | 11.5 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Seahawks by 7.2 ✗ | 75% | 9.2 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Seahawks ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Seahawks by 8.5 | — | 10.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 3 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 3; league rank in brackets.
| Seahawks | Commanders | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.16 (2nd) | −0.05 (22nd) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.07 (8th) | 0.00 (14th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.09 (3rd) | +0.06 (26th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.24 (3rd) | +0.07 (17th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.12 (23rd) | −0.10 (13th) |
| Offense success rate | 44% (12th) | 44% (9th) |
The Seahawks won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 2, 2025Week 9, 2025 | Seahawks 38, Commanders 14at Washington |
| Nov 12, 2023Week 10, 2023 | Seahawks 29, Commanders 26at Seattle |
| Nov 29, 2021Week 12, 2021 | Commanders 17, Seahawks 15at Washington |
| Dec 20, 2020Week 15, 2020 | Seahawks 20, Commanders 15at Washington |
| Nov 5, 2017Week 9, 2017 | Commanders 17, Seahawks 14at Seattle |