Our call for every Week 3 game: the team the consensus of our models favors, how confident it is, and how many models agree. Our call had the winner in 9 of 16 games this week.
Reconstructed: Week 3 came before these pages existed, so these predictions were worked out afterwards from data before the week. The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it Tue, Oct 13 · 11:56 AM CT .
Falcons at Packers Thu, Sep 24 · 7:15 PM CT · Final: Falcons 35, Packers 14. Our call: Packers Strong 5 of 5 models favor the Packers. Our call was wrong. Closest of our models: Elo.
Panthers at Browns Sun, Sep 27 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Browns 21, Panthers 18. Our call: Panthers Toss-up 3 of 5 models favor the Panthers. Our call was wrong. Closest: Elo.
Bengals at Steelers Sun, Sep 27 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Steelers 30, Bengals 27. Our call: Bengals Toss-up 3 of 5 models favor the Bengals. Our call was wrong. Closest: Elo.
Texans at Colts Sun, Sep 27 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Colts 19, Texans 17. Our call: Colts Toss-up 3 of 5 models favor the Colts. Our call was right. Closest: SRS.
Chiefs at Dolphins Sun, Sep 27 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10. Our call: Chiefs Lean 5 of 5 models favor the Chiefs. Our call was right. Closest: ESPN FPI.
Chargers at Bills Sun, Sep 27 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Bills 24, Chargers 16. Our call: Bills Strong 5 of 5 models favor the Bills. Our call was right. Closest: ESPN FPI.
Patriots at Jaguars Sun, Sep 27 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Jaguars 35, Patriots 6. Our call: Jaguars Toss-up 3 of 5 models favor the Jaguars. Our call was right. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI.
Jets at Lions Sun, Sep 27 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Lions 31, Jets 24. Our call: Lions Lean 5 of 5 models favor the Lions. Our call was right. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI.
Seahawks at Commanders Sun, Sep 27 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Commanders 33, Seahawks 31. Our call: Seahawks Lean 4 of 5 models favor the Seahawks. Our call was wrong. Closest: Our model.
Titans at Giants Sun, Sep 27 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Giants 12, Titans 7. Our call: Giants Toss-up 4 of 5 models favor the Giants. Our call was right. Closest: SRS.
Cardinals at 49ers Sun, Sep 27 · 3:05 PM CT · Final: 49ers 36, Cardinals 30. Our call: 49ers Strong 5 of 5 models favor the 49ers. Our call was right. Closest: Our model.
Vikings at Buccaneers Sun, Sep 27 · 3:05 PM CT · Final: Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16. Our call: Vikings Toss-up 4 of 5 models favor the Vikings. Our call was right. Closest: Elo.
Ravens at Cowboys Sun, Sep 27 · 3:25 PM CT · neutral site · Final: Ravens 34, Cowboys 31. Our call: Ravens Toss-up 4 of 5 models favor the Ravens. Our call was right. Closest of our models: SRS.
Raiders at Saints Sun, Sep 27 · 3:25 PM CT · Final: Raiders 35, Saints 27. Our call: Saints Lean 4 of 5 models favor the Saints. Our call was wrong. Closest: Elo and SRS.
Rams at Broncos Sun, Sep 27 · 7:20 PM CT · Final: Broncos 30, Rams 26. Our call: Rams Toss-up 3 of 5 models favor the Rams. Our call was wrong. Closest: Elo.
Eagles at Bears Mon, Sep 28 · 7:15 PM CT · Final: Bears 27, Eagles 7. Our call: Eagles Toss-up 3 of 5 models favor the Eagles. Our call was wrong. Closest: SRS.
Top performers this week
Over the week's finished games. Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards. Player stats: nflverse (CC BY 4.0).
Our own model is experimental: season so far it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8. Each game page shows every model.