3 of 5 models favor the Eagles.
On average the models have the Eagles by 0.6 points, a 53% win chance.
Final: Bears 27, Eagles 7.
Closest: SRS (Bears by 4.9, missed by 15.1). 2 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 3 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Bears won 27–7. Keenum threw for 247 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (Eagles, Toss-up) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Eagles | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 248 | 375 |
| Passing yards | 141 | 247 |
| Rushing yards | 107 | 128 |
| Sacked | 2 (12 yards) | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Eagles by 0.6 ✗ | 53% | 20.6 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Eagles by 3.3 ✗ | 60% | 23.3 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Bears by 0.2 ✓ | 51% | 19.8 |
| SRS ClosestSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Bears by 4.9 ✓ | 64% | 15.1 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Eagles by 4 ✗ | 65% | 24.0 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Eagles ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Eagles by 3.5 | — | 23.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 3 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 3; league rank in brackets.
| Eagles | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.04 (20th) | +0.08 (5th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | 0.00 (13th) | +0.10 (3rd) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.04 (23rd) | +0.02 (20th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.08 (13th) | +0.19 (5th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.13 (24th) | −0.03 (5th) |
| Offense success rate | 40% (29th) | 44% (14th) |
The Eagles won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 28, 2025Week 13, 2025 | Bears 24, Eagles 15at Philadelphia |
| Dec 18, 2022Week 15, 2022 | Eagles 25, Bears 20at Chicago |
| Nov 3, 2019Week 9, 2019 | Eagles 22, Bears 14at Philadelphia |
| Jan 6, 2019Wild Card, 2018 | Eagles 16, Bears 15at Chicago |
| Nov 26, 2017Week 12, 2017 | Eagles 31, Bears 3at Philadelphia |