3–2, tied for 2nd in the NFC North; offense and defense both in the middle of the league.
The Bears are 3–2 in 2026, 0–2 against the NFC North.
By opponent-adjusted EPA per play the Bears' offense ranks 11th (+0.05) and their defense 20th (+0.02 allowed); 14th of 32 by net (+0.02).
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18 · 12:00 PM CT on Fox
Our call: Bears Toss-up
4 of 5 models favor the Bears. On average the models have the Bears by 0.3 points, a 52% win chance.
Every model, the quarterbacks and the matchup →
TV listings: ESPN
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours. League-wide news →
| Team | Record | In the division |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 5–0 | 2–0 |
| Green Bay Packers | 3–2 | 1–1 |
| Detroit Lions | 3–2 | 0–0 |
| Chicago Bears | 3–2 | 0–2 |
By winning percentage (a tie counts half), then the NFL's division tiebreakers as our standings apply them.
| Week | Opponent | Result | Our call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1Sun, Sep 13 · Fox | at Panthers | W 59–37 | Bears Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 2Sun, Sep 20 · Fox | vs Vikings | L 3–9 | Bears Lean · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 3Mon, Sep 28 · ESPN and ABC | vs Eagles | W 27–7 | Eagles Toss-up · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 4Sun, Oct 4 · Fox | vs Jets | W 23–12 | Bears Lean · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 5Sun, Oct 11 · Fox | at Packers | L 7–31 | Bears Toss-up · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 6Sun, Oct 18 · Fox | at Falcons | — | Bears Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 7Thu, Oct 22 · Prime Video | vs Patriots | — | Patriots Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 8Mon, Nov 2 · ESPN | at Seahawks | — | Seahawks Lean | Game page |
| Week 9Sun, Nov 8 · NBC | vs Buccaneers | — | Bears Lean | Game page |
| Week 10 | Bye | |||
| Week 11Sun, Nov 22 · Fox | vs Saints | — | Bears Lean | Game page |
| Week 12Thu, Nov 26 · CBS | at Lions | — | Lions Lean | Game page |
| Week 13Sun, Dec 6 · Fox | vs Jaguars | — | Jaguars Lean | Game page |
| Week 14Sun, Dec 13 · CBS | at Dolphins | — | Bears Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 15Sat, Dec 19 · CBS | at Bills | — | Bills Lean | Game page |
| Week 16Fri, Dec 25 · Netflix | vs Packers | — | Bears Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 17Sun, Jan 3 · Fox | vs Lions | — | Lions Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 18Sun, Jan 10 | at Vikings | — | Vikings Lean | Game page |
Our call is the team the consensus of our models favored before kickoff, never changed after it; ✓ when that team won, ✗ when it lost. Each game page shows every model.
TV listings: ESPN
2026 regular season through Week 5, from nflverse's player stats: the Bears players above the leaders page's marks per team game.
| Player | Yardsrushing | Carries | Yardsper carry | TDrushing | Targets | Share ofteam targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre SwiftRB | 354 | 78 | 4.5 | 4 | 16 | 10% |
| Kyle MonangaiRB | 324 | 60 | 5.4 | 3 | 5 | 3.1% |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rome OdunzeWR | 273 | 17 | 29 | 18% | 406 | 0 |
| Luther Burden IIIWR | 266 | 23 | 35 | 22% | 316 | 1 |
| Kalif RaymondWR | 226 | 24 | 27 | 17% | 177 | 1 |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colston LovelandTE | 110 | 13 | 23 | 14% | 145 | 0 |
| Player | Tackles | For loss | Sacks | INT | Passesdefended | Fumblesforced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon ThienemanSAF | 37 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Devin BushLB | 27 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyrique StevensonCB | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Cam LewisCB | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik MuhammadCB | 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jaylon JohnsonCB | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| T.J. EdwardsLB | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| James LynchDT | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin BookerDE | 14 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| D'Marco JacksonLB | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top 10 by tackles.
| Player | FG made | FG tried | Longestyards | Extra pointsmade | Extra pointstried |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cairo SantosK | 7 | 9 | 50 | 14 | 14 |
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, 2026 regular season to date; league rank of 32 beside each.
| Bears | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.05 | 11th |
| Offense, success rate | 46% | 7th |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.10 | 14th |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.02 | 8th |
What the defense allowed, opponent-adjusted, 2026 regular season to date; 1st allowed the least. Net is offense minus defense.
| Bears | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Defense, EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | 20th |
| Defense, success rate allowed | 44% | 22nd |
| Pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed | +0.03 | 15th |
| Run defense, EPA per run allowed | +0.01 | 32nd |
| Net EPA per play (offense minus defense) | +0.02 | 14th |
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Our call had the winner in 2 of 5 Bears games (40%).
| Model | Games | Winner right | Rate | Average miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call) | 5 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 16.0 |
| Our model Experimental | 5 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 16.9 |
| Elo | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 14.8 |
| SRS | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 15.0 |
| ESPN FPI | 5 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 17.4 |
| Record | 5 | 1 of 5 | 20% | — |
Winner right: games where the model favored the team that won (a tie counts half). Average miss: points between the model's margin and the final margin. Weeks 1–4 reconstructed: worked out afterwards from data before each week. Every game, every team →
Outside looking in: the Bears reach the playoffs in 35% of our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season and win the NFC North in 5%; their average finish is 9–8.
In the race for the 2027 draft: the Bears get the #1 pick in <1% of the simulations and a top-5 pick in 2%. Draft order →
After Week 5's games; simulated Tue, Oct 13 · 6:05 PM CT. The rest of the season is played out 20,000 times, each game with our call's win chance; the NFL's tiebreakers are applied in simplified form (no points or touchdown steps). How the simulation works →