2–3, 2nd in the NFC South; offense middle of the league, defense top 10.
The Falcons are 2–3 in 2026, 1–1 against the NFC South.
By opponent-adjusted EPA per play the Falcons' offense ranks 17th (−0.02) and their defense 10th (−0.04 allowed); 15th of 32 by net (+0.01).
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18 · 12:00 PM CT on Fox
Our call: Bears Toss-up
4 of 5 models favor the Bears. On average the models have the Bears by 0.3 points, a 52% win chance.
Every model, the quarterbacks and the matchup →
TV listings: ESPN
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours. League-wide news →
| Team | Record | In the division |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | 2–2 | 1–0 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 2–3 | 1–1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1–4 | 0–0 |
| New Orleans Saints | 1–4 | 0–1 |
By winning percentage (a tie counts half), then the NFL's division tiebreakers as our standings apply them.
| Week | Opponent | Result | Our call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1Sun, Sep 13 · Fox | at Steelers | L 13–20 | Steelers Lean · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 2Sun, Sep 20 · Fox | vs Panthers | L 3–34 | Falcons Toss-up · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 3Thu, Sep 24 · Prime Video | at Packers | W 35–14 | Packers Strong · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 4Mon, Oct 5 · ESPN | at Saints | W 45–24 | Saints Toss-up · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 5Sun, Oct 11 · NBC | vs Ravens | L 23–30 (OT) | Falcons Toss-up · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 6Sun, Oct 18 · Fox | vs Bears | — | Bears Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 7Sun, Oct 25 · Fox | vs 49ers | — | 49ers Lean | Game page |
| Week 8Sun, Nov 1 · Fox | at Buccaneers | — | Falcons Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 9Sun, Nov 8 · NFL Network | vs Bengalsneutral site | — | Bengals Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 10Sun, Nov 15 · CBS | vs Chiefs | — | Chiefs Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 11 | Bye | |||
| Week 12Sun, Nov 29 · Fox | at Vikings | — | Vikings Lean | Game page |
| Week 13Sun, Dec 6 · CBS | vs Lions | — | Lions Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 14Sun, Dec 13 · CBS | at Browns | — | Falcons Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 15Sun, Dec 20 · Fox | at Commanders | — | Falcons Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 16Sun, Dec 27 | vs Buccaneers | — | Falcons Lean | Game page |
| Week 17Sun, Jan 3 · Fox | vs Saints | — | Falcons Lean | Game page |
| Week 18Sun, Jan 10 | at Panthers | — | Panthers Toss-up | Game page |
Our call is the team the consensus of our models favored before kickoff, never changed after it; ✓ when that team won, ✗ when it lost. Each game page shows every model.
TV listings: ESPN
2026 regular season through Week 5, from nflverse's player stats: the Falcons players above the leaders page's marks per team game.
| Player | Yardspassing | Attempts | Completedof attempts | TD | INT | EPAper dropback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr.QB | 719 | 77 | 68% | 3 | 1 | +0.34 |
| Player | Yardsrushing | Carries | Yardsper carry | TDrushing | Targets | Share ofteam targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan RobinsonRB | 580 | 102 | 5.7 | 4 | 25 | 20% |
| Brian RobinsonRB | 210 | 51 | 4.1 | 4 | 4 | 3.1% |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake LondonWR | 488 | 27 | 36 | 28% | 327 | 0 |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle PittsTE | 109 | 10 | 15 | 12% | 94 | 1 |
| Player | Tackles | For loss | Sacks | INT | Passesdefended | Fumblesforced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier WattsSAF | 34 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Divine DeabloLB | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| C.J. HendersonCB | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
| Mike HughesCB | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Jessie BatesFS | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Kendal DanielsLB | 22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Harold Perkins Jr.LB | 19 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sydney BrownSAF | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Cameron ThomasDE | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| LaCale LondonDE | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top 10 by tackles.
| Player | FG made | FG tried | Longestyards | Extra pointsmade | Extra pointstried |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick FolkK | 9 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 12 |
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, 2026 regular season to date; league rank of 32 beside each.
| Falcons | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.02 | 17th |
| Offense, success rate | 45% | 12th |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.06 | 29th |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | +0.02 | 3rd |
What the defense allowed, opponent-adjusted, 2026 regular season to date; 1st allowed the least. Net is offense minus defense.
| Falcons | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Defense, EPA per play allowed | −0.04 | 10th |
| Defense, success rate allowed | 40% | 5th |
| Pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed | −0.02 | 5th |
| Run defense, EPA per run allowed | −0.10 | 14th |
| Net EPA per play (offense minus defense) | +0.01 | 15th |
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Our call had the winner in 1 of 5 Falcons games (20%).
| Model | Games | Winner right | Rate | Average miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call) | 5 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 18.9 |
| Our model Experimental | 5 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 18.4 |
| Elo | 5 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 18.6 |
| SRS | 5 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 19.8 |
| ESPN FPI | 5 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 18.6 |
| Record | 5 | 2 of 5 | 40% | — |
Winner right: games where the model favored the team that won (a tie counts half). Average miss: points between the model's margin and the final margin. Weeks 1–4 reconstructed: worked out afterwards from data before each week. Every game, every team →
Outside looking in: the Falcons reach the playoffs in 36% of our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season and win the NFC South in 30%; their average finish is 8–9.
In the race for the 2027 draft: the Falcons get the #1 pick in <1% of the simulations and a top-5 pick in 8%. Draft order →
After Week 5's games; simulated Tue, Oct 13 · 6:05 PM CT. The rest of the season is played out 20,000 times, each game with our call's win chance; the NFL's tiebreakers are applied in simplified form (no points or touchdown steps). How the simulation works →