5–0, 1st in the NFC North; offense bottom 10, defense top 10.
The Vikings are 5–0 in 2026, 2–0 against the NFC North.
By opponent-adjusted EPA per play the Vikings' offense ranks 29th (−0.08) and their defense 1st (−0.13 allowed); 10th of 32 by net (+0.05).
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT on CBS
Our call: Vikings Lean
4 of 4 models favor the Vikings. On average the models have the Vikings by 4.8 points, a 65% win chance.
Every model, the quarterbacks and the matchup →
TV listings: ESPN
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours. League-wide news →
| Team | Record | In the division |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 5–0 | 2–0 |
| Green Bay Packers | 3–2 | 1–1 |
| Detroit Lions | 3–2 | 0–0 |
| Chicago Bears | 3–2 | 0–2 |
By winning percentage (a tie counts half), then the NFL's division tiebreakers as our standings apply them.
| Week | Opponent | Result | Our call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1Sun, Sep 13 · CBS | vs Packers | W 39–22 | Packers Toss-up · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 2Sun, Sep 20 · Fox | at Bears | W 9–3 | Bears Lean · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 3Sun, Sep 27 · Fox | at Buccaneers | W 23–16 | Vikings Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 4Sun, Oct 4 · Fox | vs Dolphins | W 15–10 | Vikings Strong · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 5Sun, Oct 11 · Fox | at Saints | W 23–13 | Vikings Lean · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 6 | Bye | |||
| Week 7Sun, Oct 25 · CBS | vs Colts | — | Vikings Lean | Game page |
| Week 8Sun, Nov 1 · Fox | at Lions | — | Lions Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 9Mon, Nov 9 · ESPN and ABC | vs Bills | — | Vikings Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 10Sun, Nov 15 · Fox | at Packers | — | Packers Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 11Sun, Nov 22 · NBC | vs 49ersneutral site | — | 49ers Lean | Game page |
| Week 12Sun, Nov 29 · Fox | vs Falcons | — | Vikings Lean | Game page |
| Week 13Sun, Dec 6 · CBS | vs Panthers | — | Vikings Lean | Game page |
| Week 14Thu, Dec 10 · Prime Video | at Patriots | — | Patriots Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 15Sun, Dec 20 · NBC | vs Lions | — | Vikings Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 16Sun, Dec 27 | vs Commanders | — | Vikings Strong | Game page |
| Week 17Sun, Jan 3 · CBS | at Jets | — | Vikings Lean | Game page |
| Week 18Sun, Jan 10 | vs Bears | — | Vikings Lean | Game page |
Our call is the team the consensus of our models favored before kickoff, never changed after it; ✓ when that team won, ✗ when it lost. Each game page shows every model.
TV listings: ESPN
2026 regular season through Week 5, from nflverse's player stats: the Vikings players above the leaders page's marks per team game.
| Player | Yardspassing | Attempts | Completedof attempts | TD | INT | EPAper dropback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler MurrayQB | 662 | 101 | 68% | 2 | 2 | −0.08 |
| Player | Yardsrushing | Carries | Yardsper carry | TDrushing | Targets | Share ofteam targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron JonesRB | 410 | 97 | 4.2 | 2 | 18 | 14% |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin JeffersonWR | 258 | 19 | 24 | 19% | 263 | 3 |
| Jordan AddisonWR | 163 | 11 | 22 | 17% | 272 | 1 |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. HockensonTE | 202 | 23 | 27 | 21% | 178 | 1 |
| Player | Tackles | For loss | Sacks | INT | Passesdefended | Fumblesforced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake CashmanLB | 42 | 4 | 2.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh MetellusSAF | 30 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Eric WilsonLB | 26 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Byron MurphyCB | 21 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| James PierreCB | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Isaiah RodgersCB | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jalen RedmondDL | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Andrew Van GinkelOLB | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Dallas TurnerLB | 14 | 3 | 5.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ivan Pace Jr.LB | 12 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top 10 by tackles.
| Player | FG made | FG tried | Longestyards | Extra pointsmade | Extra pointstried |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ReichardK | 15 | 15 | 56 | 8 | 8 |
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, 2026 regular season to date; league rank of 32 beside each.
| Vikings | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.08 | 29th |
| Offense, success rate | 36% | 32nd |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.02 | 25th |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.18 | 28th |
What the defense allowed, opponent-adjusted, 2026 regular season to date; 1st allowed the least. Net is offense minus defense.
| Vikings | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Defense, EPA per play allowed | −0.13 | 1st |
| Defense, success rate allowed | 37% | 1st |
| Pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed | −0.11 | 1st |
| Run defense, EPA per run allowed | −0.17 | 2nd |
| Net EPA per play (offense minus defense) | +0.05 | 10th |
Week 5 report (last filed); bye in Week 6
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Our call had the winner in 3 of 5 Vikings games (60%).
| Model | Games | Winner right | Rate | Average miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call) | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 8.4 |
| Our model Experimental | 5 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 11.2 |
| Elo | 5 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 6.4 |
| SRS | 5 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 7.3 |
| ESPN FPI | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 9.9 |
| Record | 5 | 4 of 5 | 80% | — |
Winner right: games where the model favored the team that won (a tie counts half). Average miss: points between the model's margin and the final margin. Weeks 1–4 reconstructed: worked out afterwards from data before each week. Every game, every team →
Very likely in: the Vikings reach the playoffs in 94% of our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season and win the NFC North in 68%; their average finish is 12–5.
After Week 5's games; simulated Tue, Oct 13 · 6:05 PM CT. The rest of the season is played out 20,000 times, each game with our call's win chance; the NFL's tiebreakers are applied in simplified form (no points or touchdown steps). How the simulation works →