2–3, 2nd in the AFC South; offense middle of the league, defense bottom 10.
The Colts are 2–3 in 2026, 1–0 against the AFC South.
By opponent-adjusted EPA per play the Colts' offense ranks 19th (−0.03) and their defense 26th (+0.06 allowed); 25th of 32 by net (−0.09).
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18 · 12:00 PM CT on Fox
Our call: Colts Strong
5 of 5 models favor the Colts. On average the models have the Colts by 7.7 points, a 74% win chance.
Every model, the quarterbacks and the matchup →
TV listings: ESPN
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours. League-wide news →
| Team | Record | In the division |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4–1 | 0–0 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2–3 | 1–0 |
| Houston Texans | 1–4 | 1–1 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0–5 | 0–1 |
By winning percentage (a tie counts half), then the NFL's division tiebreakers as our standings apply them.
| Week | Opponent | Result | Our call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1Sun, Sep 13 · CBS | vs Ravens | L 23–41 | Ravens Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 2Sun, Sep 20 · NBC | at Chiefs | L 30–33 (OT) | Chiefs Lean · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 3Sun, Sep 27 · CBS | vs Texans | W 19–17 | Colts Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 4Sun, Oct 4 · NFL Network | vs Commandersneutral site | W 30–13 | Colts Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 5Sun, Oct 11 · CBS | at Steelers | L 22–34 | Steelers Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 6Sun, Oct 18 · Fox | vs Titans | — | Colts Strong | Game page |
| Week 7Sun, Oct 25 · CBS | at Vikings | — | Vikings Lean | Game page |
| Week 8Sun, Nov 1 · CBS | at Jaguars | — | Jaguars Strong | Game page |
| Week 9Sun, Nov 8 · Fox | vs Cowboys | — | Colts Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 10Sun, Nov 15 · CBS | vs Dolphins | — | Colts Lean | Game page |
| Week 11Thu, Nov 19 · Prime Video | at Texans | — | Texans Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 12Sun, Nov 29 · Fox | vs Giants | — | Colts Lean | Game page |
| Week 13 | Bye | |||
| Week 14Sun, Dec 13 · Fox | at Eagles | — | Eagles Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 15Sun, Dec 20 · CBS | at Titans | — | Colts Lean | Game page |
| Week 16Sun, Dec 27 | vs Bengals | — | Bengals Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 17Sun, Jan 3 · Fox | at Browns | — | Colts Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 18Sun, Jan 10 | vs Jaguars | — | Jaguars Lean | Game page |
Our call is the team the consensus of our models favored before kickoff, never changed after it; ✓ when that team won, ✗ when it lost. Each game page shows every model.
TV listings: ESPN
2026 regular season through Week 5, from nflverse's player stats: the Colts players above the leaders page's marks per team game.
| Player | Yardspassing | Attempts | Completedof attempts | TD | INT | EPAper dropback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel JonesQB | 1,021 | 176 | 61% | 3 | 4 | −0.13 |
| Player | Yardsrushing | Carries | Yardsper carry | TDrushing | Targets | Share ofteam targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan TaylorRB | 398 | 101 | 3.9 | 6 | 19 | 11% |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh DownsWR | 249 | 20 | 34 | 20% | 376 | 0 |
| Laquon TreadwellWR | 157 | 11 | 19 | 11% | 248 | 0 |
| Keenan AllenWR | 145 | 18 | 29 | 17% | 188 | 1 |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler WarrenTE | 213 | 30 | 36 | 22% | 145 | 2 |
| Player | Tackles | For loss | Sacks | INT | Passesdefended | Fumblesforced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akeem Davis-GaitherLB | 44 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Justin WalleyCB | 28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| DeForest BucknerDT | 24 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Camryn BynumSAF | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| A.J. HaulcySAF | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Bryce BoettcherLB | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius WardCB | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Grover StewartDT | 17 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sauce GardnerCB | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Laiatu LatuDE | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Top 10 by tackles.
| Player | FG made | FG tried | Longestyards | Extra pointsmade | Extra pointstried |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer ShraderK | 16 | 16 | 58 | 10 | 11 |
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, 2026 regular season to date; league rank of 32 beside each.
| Colts | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.03 | 19th |
| Offense, success rate | 43% | 16th |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.10 | 30th |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | +0.09 | 1st |
What the defense allowed, opponent-adjusted, 2026 regular season to date; 1st allowed the least. Net is offense minus defense.
| Colts | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Defense, EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | 26th |
| Defense, success rate allowed | 44% | 18th |
| Pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed | +0.09 | 22nd |
| Run defense, EPA per run allowed | +0.01 | 31st |
| Net EPA per play (offense minus defense) | −0.09 | 25th |
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Our call had the winner in 5 of 5 Colts games (100%).
| Model | Games | Winner right | Rate | Average miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call) | 5 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 9.5 |
| Our model Experimental | 5 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 9.6 |
| Elo | 5 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 10.0 |
| SRS | 5 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 9.7 |
| ESPN FPI | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 10.1 |
| Record | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | — |
Winner right: games where the model favored the team that won (a tie counts half). Average miss: points between the model's margin and the final margin. Weeks 1–4 reconstructed: worked out afterwards from data before each week. Every game, every team →
Outside looking in: the Colts reach the playoffs in 21% of our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season and win the AFC South in 7%; their average finish is 8–9.
In the race for the 2027 draft: the Colts get the #1 pick in <1% of the simulations and a top-5 pick in 6%. Draft order →
After Week 5's games; simulated Tue, Oct 13 · 6:05 PM CT. The rest of the season is played out 20,000 times, each game with our call's win chance; the NFL's tiebreakers are applied in simplified form (no points or touchdown steps). How the simulation works →