3 of 5 models favor the Ravens.
On average the models have the Ravens by 0.5 points, a 52% win chance.
Final: Ravens 41, Colts 23.
Closest of our models: ESPN FPI (Ravens by 2.4, missed by 15.6). 3 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 1 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Ravens won 41–23. Jackson threw for 324 yards and 1 touchdown. Our call (Ravens, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Ravens | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 506 | 251 |
| Passing yards | 304 | 149 |
| Rushing yards | 202 | 102 |
| Sacked | 2 (20 yards) | 2 (17 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Ravens by 0.5 ✓ | 52% | 17.5 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Ravens by 1.5 ✓ | 55% | 16.5 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Ravens by 1.4 ✓ | 55% | 16.6 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Colts by 3.3 ✗ | 60% | 21.3 |
| ESPN FPI ClosestESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Ravens by 2.4 ✓ | 60% | 15.6 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Colts ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Ravens by 3 | — | 15.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 1 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
The Ravens won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 24, 2023Week 3, 2023 | Colts 22, Ravens 19at Baltimore |
| Oct 11, 2021Week 5, 2021 | Ravens 31, Colts 25at Baltimore |
| Nov 8, 2020Week 9, 2020 | Ravens 24, Colts 10at Indianapolis |
| Dec 23, 2017Week 16, 2017 | Ravens 23, Colts 16at Baltimore |
| Oct 5, 2014Week 5, 2014 | Colts 20, Ravens 13at Indianapolis |