5 of 5 models favor the Colts.
On average the models have the Colts by 7.7 points, a 74% win chance.
Updated until kickoff, then frozen.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
Weather at kickoff: Roof may be closed. Outside: 59°F, sunny, wind 7 mph from the south, little chance of rain.
Forecast: National Weather Service, read Tue, Oct 13 · 10:50 PM CT.
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Colts by 7.7 | 74% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Colts by 8.3 | 74% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Colts by 8.2 | 77% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Colts by 8.8 | 74% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Colts by 5.3 | 70% |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Colts | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Colts by 7 | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of .
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 6; league rank in brackets.
| Titans | Colts | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.18 (32nd) | −0.09 (25th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.10 (31st) | −0.03 (19th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.09 (28th) | +0.06 (26th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.11 (31st) | −0.10 (30th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.08 (19th) | +0.09 (1st) |
| Offense success rate | 42% (21st) | 43% (16th) |
The Colts won 5 of the last 5 meetings.
| Oct 26, 2025Week 8, 2025 | Colts 38, Titans 14at Indianapolis |
| Sep 21, 2025Week 3, 2025 | Colts 41, Titans 20at Tennessee |
| Dec 22, 2024Week 16, 2024 | Colts 38, Titans 30at Indianapolis |
| Oct 13, 2024Week 6, 2024 | Colts 20, Titans 17at Tennessee |
| Dec 3, 2023Week 13, 2023 | Colts 31, Titans 28at Tennessee |