3 of 5 models favor the Colts.
On average the models have the Colts by 1.6 points, a 55% win chance.
Final: Colts 30, Commanders 13.
Closest of our models: SRS (Colts by 2.6, missed by 14.4). 3 of 4 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 4 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Colts won 30–13. Jones threw for 143 yards. Our call (Colts, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Colts | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 257 | 317 |
| Passing yards | 129 | 217 |
| Rushing yards | 128 | 100 |
| Sacked | 2 (14 yards) | 2 (15 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Colts by 1.6 ✓ | 55% | 15.4 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Colts by 2 ✓ | 56% | 15.0 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Even | 50% | 17.0 |
| SRS ClosestSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Colts by 2.6 ✓ | 58% | 14.4 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Colts by 1.6 ✓ | 57% | 15.4 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Commanders ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Colts by 4.5 | — | 12.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 4 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
And 2 more on the report.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 4; league rank in brackets.
| Colts | Commanders | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.11 (31st) | −0.03 (20th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.02 (20th) | +0.01 (14th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.09 (31st) | +0.03 (22nd) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.05 (27th) | +0.07 (17th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | +0.03 (1st) | −0.10 (19th) |
| Offense success rate | 45% (12th) | 42% (23rd) |
The Colts won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Oct 30, 2022Week 8, 2022 | Commanders 17, Colts 16at Indianapolis |
| Sep 16, 2018Week 2, 2018 | Colts 21, Commanders 9at Washington |
| Nov 30, 2014Week 13, 2014 | Colts 49, Commanders 27at Indianapolis |
| Oct 17, 2010Week 6, 2010 | Colts 27, Commanders 24at Washington |
| Oct 22, 2006Week 7, 2006 | Colts 36, Commanders 22at Indianapolis |