4 of 4 models favor the Colts.
On average the models have the Colts by 2.3 points, a 57% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Colts by 2.3 | 57% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Colts by 1.6 | 55% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Colts by 2 | 57% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Colts by 3.2 | 59% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Colts | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 9's first kickoff.
The official Week 9 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Cowboys | Colts | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.06 (23rd) | −0.09 (25th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.10 (6th) | −0.03 (19th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.16 (32nd) | +0.06 (26th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.16 (6th) | −0.10 (30th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.01 (5th) | +0.09 (1st) |
| Offense success rate | 47% (3rd) | 43% (16th) |
The Cowboys won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 4, 2022Week 13, 2022 | Cowboys 54, Colts 19at Dallas |
| Dec 16, 2018Week 15, 2018 | Colts 23, Cowboys 0at Indianapolis |
| Dec 21, 2014Week 16, 2014 | Cowboys 42, Colts 7at Dallas |
| Dec 5, 2010Week 13, 2010 | Cowboys 38, Colts 35at Indianapolis |
| Nov 19, 2006Week 11, 2006 | Cowboys 21, Colts 14at Dallas |