3 of 5 models favor the Steelers.
On average the models have the Steelers by 0.6 points, a 52% win chance.
Final: Steelers 34, Colts 22.
Closest of our models: Elo (Steelers by 2.8, missed by 9.2). 3 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Frozen at kickoff. Predictions never change after kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Steelers won 34–22. Rodgers threw for 235 yards and 3 touchdowns. Our call (Steelers, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Colts | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 332 | 352 |
| Passing yards | 266 | 225 |
| Rushing yards | 66 | 127 |
| Sacked | 1 (1 yard) | 1 (10 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Steelers by 0.6 ✓ | 52% | 11.4 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Colts by 0.7 ✗ | 52% | 12.7 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Steelers by 2.8 ✓ | 60% | 9.2 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Steelers by 0.4 ✓ | 51% | 11.6 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Colts by 0.1 ✗ | 51% | 12.1 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Steelers ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Steelers by 3 | — | 9.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of , the last check before kickoff.
The last official Week 5 injury report before kickoff, as of Sun, Oct 11 · 8:56 AM CT, frozen with the prediction: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 5; league rank in brackets.
| Colts | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.07 (24th) | −0.07 (25th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.03 (20th) | −0.06 (27th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.03 (23rd) | +0.01 (19th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.11 (32nd) | −0.05 (28th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | +0.10 (1st) | −0.04 (11th) |
| Offense success rate | 44% (15th) | 43% (18th) |
The Steelers won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 2, 2025Week 9, 2025 | Steelers 27, Colts 20at Pittsburgh |
| Sep 29, 2024Week 4, 2024 | Colts 27, Steelers 24at Indianapolis |
| Dec 16, 2023Week 15, 2023 | Colts 30, Steelers 13at Indianapolis |
| Nov 28, 2022Week 12, 2022 | Steelers 24, Colts 17at Indianapolis |
| Dec 27, 2020Week 16, 2020 | Steelers 28, Colts 24at Pittsburgh |