Our call for every Week 5 game: the team the consensus of our models favors, how confident it is, and how many models agree. Our call had the winner in 10.5 of 15 games this week.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it Tue, Oct 13 · 11:56 AM CT .
Buccaneers at Cowboys Thu, Oct 8 · 7:15 PM CT · Final: Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16. Our call: Cowboys Lean 5 of 5 models favor the Cowboys. Our call was wrong. Closest: SRS.
Eagles at Jaguars Sun, Oct 11 · 8:30 AM CT · neutral site · Final: Jaguars 19, Eagles 17. Our call: Jaguars Lean 5 of 5 models favor the Jaguars. Our call was right. Closest: Elo.
Bears at Packers Sun, Oct 11 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Packers 31, Bears 7. Our call: Bears Toss-up 4 of 5 models favor the Bears. Our call was wrong. Closest: Our model.
Bengals at Dolphins Sun, Oct 11 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Bengals 31, Dolphins 24. Our call: Bengals Lean 5 of 5 models favor the Bengals. Our call was right. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI.
Browns at Jets Sun, Oct 11 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Jets 17, Browns 12. Our call: Jets Toss-up 2 of 5 models favor the Jets. Our call was right. Closest: Our model.
Texans at Titans Sun, Oct 11 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Texans 26, Titans 3. Our call: Texans Lean 4 of 5 models favor the Texans. Our call was right. Closest of our models: Elo.
Colts at Steelers Sun, Oct 11 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Steelers 34, Colts 22. Our call: Steelers Toss-up 3 of 5 models favor the Steelers. Our call was right. Closest of our models: Elo.
Raiders at Patriots Sun, Oct 11 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Patriots 45, Raiders 17. Our call: Patriots Lean 4 of 5 models favor the Patriots. Our call was right. Closest: Elo.
Vikings at Saints Sun, Oct 11 · 12:00 PM CT · Final: Vikings 23, Saints 13. Our call: Vikings Lean 5 of 5 models favor the Vikings. Our call was right. Closest: Elo.
Giants at Commanders Sun, Oct 11 · 12:00 PM CT · Final (overtime): tied 27–27. Our call: Commanders Toss-up 2 of 5 models favor the Commanders. The game ended tied. Closest: Elo.
Broncos at Chargers Sun, Oct 11 · 3:05 PM CT · Final: Broncos 23, Chargers 17. Our call: Broncos Toss-up 5 of 5 models favor the Broncos. Our call was right. Closest: Elo.
Lions at Cardinals Sun, Oct 11 · 3:25 PM CT · Final: Lions 45, Cardinals 21. Our call: Lions Toss-up 5 of 5 models favor the Lions. Our call was right. Closest of our models: ESPN FPI.
49ers at Seahawks Sun, Oct 11 · 3:25 PM CT · Final: 49ers 32, Seahawks 29. Our call: 49ers Toss-up 4 of 5 models favor the 49ers. Our call was right. Closest: Our model.
Ravens at Falcons Sun, Oct 11 · 7:20 PM CT · Final (overtime): Ravens 30, Falcons 23. Our call: Falcons Toss-up 2 of 5 models favor the Falcons. Our call was wrong. Closest: Elo.
Bills at Rams Mon, Oct 12 · 7:15 PM CT · Final (overtime): Bills 37, Rams 34. Our call: Rams Toss-up 4 of 5 models favor the Rams. Our call was wrong. Closest: Elo.
Top performers this week
Over the week's finished games. Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards. Player stats: nflverse (CC BY 4.0).
Our own model is experimental: season so far it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8. Each game page shows every model.