5 of 5 models favor the Lions.
On average the models have the Lions by 2.8 points, a 60% win chance.
Final: Lions 45, Cardinals 21.
Closest of our models: ESPN FPI (Lions by 5.3, missed by 18.7). 5 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Frozen at kickoff. Predictions never change after kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Lions won 45–21. Goff threw for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns. Our call (Lions, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Lions | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 412 | 327 |
| Passing yards | 249 | 271 |
| Rushing yards | 163 | 56 |
| Sacked | 3 (22 yards) | 5 (28 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Lions by 2.8 ✓ | 60% | 21.2 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Lions by 0.3 ✓ | 51% | 23.7 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Lions by 3.8 ✓ | 63% | 20.2 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Lions by 1.8 ✓ | 55% | 22.2 |
| ESPN FPI ClosestESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Lions by 5.3 ✓ | 70% | 18.7 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Lions ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Lions by 5.5 | — | 18.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of , the last check before kickoff.
The last official Week 5 injury report before kickoff, as of Sun, Oct 11 · 1:01 AM CT, frozen with the prediction: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 5; league rank in brackets.
| Lions | Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.03 (18th) | −0.06 (21st) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.08 (7th) | −0.01 (17th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.11 (31st) | +0.05 (25th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.18 (8th) | +0.01 (20th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.09 (18th) | −0.05 (12th) |
| Offense success rate | 46% (9th) | 46% (11th) |
The Lions won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 22, 2024Week 3, 2024 | Lions 20, Cardinals 13at Arizona |
| Dec 19, 2021Week 15, 2021 | Lions 30, Cardinals 12at Detroit |
| Sep 27, 2020Week 3, 2020 | Lions 26, Cardinals 23at Arizona |
| Sep 8, 2019Week 1, 2019 | Tie, 27–27at Arizona |
| Dec 9, 2018Week 14, 2018 | Lions 17, Cardinals 3at Arizona |