4 of 5 models favor the Texans.
On average the models have the Texans by 4.3 points, a 64% win chance.
Final: Texans 26, Titans 3.
Closest of our models: Elo (Texans by 6.5, missed by 16.5). 4 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Frozen at kickoff. Predictions never change after kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Texans won 26–3. Stroud threw for 261 yards and 1 touchdown. Our call (Texans, Lean) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Texans | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 329 | 187 |
| Passing yards | 250 | 130 |
| Rushing yards | 79 | 57 |
| Sacked | 2 (11 yards) | 4 (40 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Texans by 4.3 ✓ | 64% | 18.7 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Texans by 3 ✓ | 59% | 20.0 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Texans by 6.5 ✓ | 72% | 16.5 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Texans by 3.1 ✓ | 59% | 19.9 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Texans by 4.5 ✓ | 67% | 18.5 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Titans ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Texans by 6.5 | — | 16.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of , the last check before kickoff.
The last official Week 5 injury report before kickoff, as of Sun, Oct 11 · 8:56 AM CT, frozen with the prediction: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
And 2 more on the report.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 5; league rank in brackets.
| Texans | Titans | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.04 (20th) | −0.12 (32nd) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.05 (25th) | −0.05 (24th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.01 (15th) | +0.07 (27th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.01 (21st) | −0.04 (26th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.18 (30th) | −0.08 (17th) |
| Offense success rate | 41% (27th) | 41% (25th) |
The Texans won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 16, 2025Week 11, 2025 | Texans 16, Titans 13at Tennessee |
| Sep 28, 2025Week 4, 2025 | Texans 26, Titans 0at Houston |
| Jan 5, 2025Week 18, 2024 | Texans 23, Titans 14at Tennessee |
| Nov 24, 2024Week 12, 2024 | Titans 32, Texans 27at Houston |
| Dec 31, 2023Week 17, 2023 | Texans 26, Titans 3at Houston |