2 of 5 models favor the Jets.
On average the models have the Jets by 0.6 points, a 52% win chance.
Final: Jets 17, Browns 12.
Closest: Our model (Jets by 3.3, missed by 1.7). 2 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Frozen at kickoff. Predictions never change after kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Jets won 17–12. Smith threw for 182 yards and 1 touchdown. Our call (Jets, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Browns | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 197 | 276 |
| Passing yards | 101 | 142 |
| Rushing yards | 96 | 134 |
| Sacked | 8 (54 yards) | 4 (40 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Jets by 0.6 ✓ | 52% | 4.4 |
| Our model Experimental ClosestOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Jets by 3.3 ✓ | 60% | 1.7 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Browns by 2.2 ✗ | 58% | 7.2 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Browns by 0.1 ✗ | 50% | 5.1 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Jets by 1.2 ✓ | 55% | 3.8 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Browns ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Jets by 2.5 | — | 2.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of , the last check before kickoff.
The last official Week 5 injury report before kickoff, as of Sun, Oct 11 · 1:01 AM CT, frozen with the prediction: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 5; league rank in brackets.
| Browns | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.01 (16th) | −0.01 (14th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | 0.00 (14th) | −0.02 (19th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.01 (20th) | −0.01 (13th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.14 (11th) | +0.08 (16th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.21 (31st) | −0.17 (29th) |
| Offense success rate | 44% (17th) | 43% (20th) |
The Jets won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 9, 2025Week 10, 2025 | Jets 27, Browns 20at New York |
| Dec 28, 2023Week 17, 2023 | Browns 37, Jets 20at Cleveland |
| Sep 18, 2022Week 2, 2022 | Jets 31, Browns 30at Cleveland |
| Dec 27, 2020Week 16, 2020 | Jets 23, Browns 16at New York |
| Sep 16, 2019Week 2, 2019 | Browns 23, Jets 3at New York |