2 of 5 models favor the Falcons.
On average the models have the Falcons by 0.9 points, a 53% win chance.
Final (overtime): Ravens 30, Falcons 23.
Closest: Elo (Ravens by 0.9, missed by 6.1). 2 of 4 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Frozen at kickoff. Predictions never change after kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Ravens won 30–23 in overtime. Huntley threw for 201 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (Falcons, Toss-up) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Ravens | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 391 | 367 |
| Passing yards | 183 | 257 |
| Rushing yards | 208 | 110 |
| Sacked | 4 (18 yards) | 3 (17 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Falcons by 0.9 ✗ | 53% | 7.9 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Falcons by 2.1 ✗ | 56% | 9.1 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Ravens by 0.9 ✓ | 53% | 6.1 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Even | 50% | 7.0 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Falcons by 2.6 ✗ | 60% | 9.6 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Ravens ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Falcons by 3 | — | 10.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of , the last check before kickoff.
The last official Week 5 injury report before kickoff, as of Sun, Oct 11 · 8:56 AM CT, frozen with the prediction: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
And 1 more on the report.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 5; league rank in brackets.
| Ravens | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.10 (6th) | −0.01 (17th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | +0.08 (8th) | −0.04 (22nd) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.02 (11th) | −0.02 (7th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.19 (6th) | −0.10 (30th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.05 (13th) | +0.03 (4th) |
| Offense success rate | 47% (7th) | 46% (8th) |
The Ravens won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 24, 2022Week 16, 2022 | Ravens 17, Falcons 9at Baltimore |
| Dec 2, 2018Week 13, 2018 | Ravens 26, Falcons 16at Atlanta |
| Oct 19, 2014Week 7, 2014 | Ravens 29, Falcons 7at Baltimore |
| Nov 11, 2010Week 10, 2010 | Falcons 26, Ravens 21at Atlanta |
| Nov 19, 2006Week 11, 2006 | Ravens 24, Falcons 10at Baltimore |