5 of 5 models favor the Cowboys.
On average the models have the Cowboys by 6.5 points, a 71% win chance.
Final: Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16.
Closest: SRS (Cowboys by 2.9, missed by 10.9). 0 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Frozen at kickoff. Predictions never change after kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Buccaneers won 24–16. Daniels threw for 189 yards and 1 touchdown. Our call (Cowboys, Lean) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Buccaneers | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 419 | 366 |
| Passing yards | 178 | 316 |
| Rushing yards | 241 | 50 |
| Sacked | 1 (11 yards) | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 2 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Cowboys by 6.5 ✗ | 71% | 14.5 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Cowboys by 8.1 ✗ | 73% | 16.1 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Cowboys by 4.1 ✗ | 64% | 12.1 |
| SRS ClosestSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Cowboys by 2.9 ✗ | 59% | 10.9 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Cowboys by 11.2 ✗ | 86% | 19.2 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Cowboys ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Cowboys by 9.5 | — | 17.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of , the last check before kickoff.
The last official Week 5 injury report before kickoff, as of Thu, Oct 8 · 9:32 AM CT, frozen with the prediction: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 5; league rank in brackets.
| Buccaneers | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.06 (22nd) | −0.04 (19th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.09 (31st) | +0.12 (5th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.02 (6th) | +0.16 (32nd) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.11 (31st) | +0.20 (3rd) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.04 (10th) | −0.03 (8th) |
| Offense success rate | 41% (26th) | 47% (6th) |
The Cowboys won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 22, 2024Week 16, 2024 | Cowboys 26, Buccaneers 24at Dallas |
| Jan 16, 2023Wild Card, 2022 | Cowboys 31, Buccaneers 14at Tampa Bay |
| Sep 11, 2022Week 1, 2022 | Buccaneers 19, Cowboys 3at Dallas |
| Sep 9, 2021Week 1, 2021 | Buccaneers 31, Cowboys 29at Tampa Bay |
| Dec 23, 2018Week 16, 2018 | Cowboys 27, Buccaneers 20at Dallas |