1–4, tied for 3rd in the NFC South; offense bottom 10, defense top 10.
The Buccaneers are 1–4 in 2026.
By opponent-adjusted EPA per play the Buccaneers' offense ranks 26th (−0.06) and their defense 9th (−0.04 allowed); 19th of 32 by net (−0.01).
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18 · 12:00 PM CT on CBS
Our call: Steelers Toss-up
4 of 5 models favor the Steelers. On average the models have the Steelers by 1.4 points, a 55% win chance.
Every model, the quarterbacks and the matchup →
TV listings: ESPN
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours. League-wide news →
| Team | Record | In the division |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | 2–2 | 1–0 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 2–3 | 1–1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1–4 | 0–0 |
| New Orleans Saints | 1–4 | 0–1 |
By winning percentage (a tie counts half), then the NFL's division tiebreakers as our standings apply them.
| Week | Opponent | Result | Our call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1Sun, Sep 13 · Fox | at Bengals | L 27–33 | Bengals Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 2Sun, Sep 20 · CBS | vs Browns | L 19–23 | Buccaneers Lean · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 3Sun, Sep 27 · Fox | vs Vikings | L 16–23 | Vikings Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 4Sun, Oct 4 · Fox | vs Packers | L 14–17 | Packers Toss-up · ✓ | Game page |
| Week 5Thu, Oct 8 · Prime Video | at Cowboys | W 24–16 | Cowboys Lean · ✗ | Game page |
| Week 6Sun, Oct 18 · CBS | vs Steelers | — | Steelers Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 7Sun, Oct 25 · Fox | at Panthers | — | Panthers Lean | Game page |
| Week 8Sun, Nov 1 · Fox | vs Falcons | — | Falcons Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 9Sun, Nov 8 · NBC | at Bears | — | Bears Lean | Game page |
| Week 10 | Bye | |||
| Week 11Sun, Nov 22 · CBS | at Lions | — | Lions Lean | Game page |
| Week 12Mon, Nov 30 · ESPN | vs Panthers | — | Panthers Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 13Sun, Dec 6 · CBS | vs Chargers | — | Buccaneers Toss-up | Game page |
| Week 14Sun, Dec 13 · Fox | at Ravens | — | Ravens Lean | Game page |
| Week 15Sun, Dec 20 · Fox | vs Saints | — | Buccaneers Lean | Game page |
| Week 16Sun, Dec 27 | at Falcons | — | Falcons Lean | Game page |
| Week 17Sun, Jan 3 | vs Rams | — | Rams Lean | Game page |
| Week 18Sun, Jan 10 | at Saints | — | Saints Toss-up | Game page |
Our call is the team the consensus of our models favored before kickoff, never changed after it; ✓ when that team won, ✗ when it lost. Each game page shows every model.
TV listings: ESPN
2026 regular season through Week 5, from nflverse's player stats: the Buccaneers players above the leaders page's marks per team game.
| Player | Yardspassing | Attempts | Completedof attempts | TD | INT | EPAper dropback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker MayfieldQB | 615 | 96 | 64% | 2 | 2 | −0.27 |
| Player | Yardsrushing | Carries | Yardsper carry | TDrushing | Targets | Share ofteam targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky IrvingRB | 406 | 77 | 5.3 | 2 | 18 | 12% |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka EgbukaWR | 192 | 21 | 33 | 23% | 339 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr.WR | 179 | 19 | 21 | 14% | 73 | 0 |
| Player | Yardsreceiving | Catches | Targets | Share ofteam targets | Air yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade OttonTE | 182 | 18 | 27 | 18% | 185 | 0 |
| Player | Tackles | For loss | Sacks | INT | Passesdefended | Fumblesforced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josiah TrotterLB | 40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Alex AnzaloneMLB | 27 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield Jr.SAF | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Keionte ScottCB | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Tykee SmithSAF | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jacob ParrishCB | 21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| A'Shawn RobinsonDT | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Zyon McCollumCB | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| Benjamin MorrisonCB | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| David WalkerLB | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top 10 by tackles.
| Player | FG made | FG tried | Longestyards | Extra pointsmade | Extra pointstried |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase McLaughlinK | 10 | 10 | 59 | 10 | 10 |
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, 2026 regular season to date; league rank of 32 beside each.
| Buccaneers | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.06 | 26th |
| Offense, success rate | 41% | 23rd |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.06 | 28th |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.04 | 11th |
What the defense allowed, opponent-adjusted, 2026 regular season to date; 1st allowed the least. Net is offense minus defense.
| Buccaneers | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Defense, EPA per play allowed | −0.04 | 9th |
| Defense, success rate allowed | 43% | 11th |
| Pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed | +0.01 | 10th |
| Run defense, EPA per run allowed | −0.12 | 11th |
| Net EPA per play (offense minus defense) | −0.01 | 19th |
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Our call had the winner in 3 of 5 Buccaneers games (60%).
| Model | Games | Winner right | Rate | Average miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call) | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 7.1 |
| Our model Experimental | 5 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 8.5 |
| Elo | 5 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 5.9 |
| SRS | 5 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 7.2 |
| ESPN FPI | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 8.4 |
| Record | 5 | 3 of 5 | 60% | — |
Winner right: games where the model favored the team that won (a tie counts half). Average miss: points between the model's margin and the final margin. Weeks 1–4 reconstructed: worked out afterwards from data before each week. Every game, every team →
Outside looking in: the Buccaneers reach the playoffs in 13% of our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season and win the NFC South in 11%; their average finish is 6–11.
In the race for the 2027 draft: the Buccaneers get the #1 pick in 3% of the simulations and a top-5 pick in 34%. Draft order →
After Week 5's games; simulated Tue, Oct 13 · 6:05 PM CT. The rest of the season is played out 20,000 times, each game with our call's win chance; the NFL's tiebreakers are applied in simplified form (no points or touchdown steps). How the simulation works →