4 of 5 models favor the Bengals.
On average the models have the Bengals by 1.9 points, a 57% win chance.
Final: Bengals 33, Buccaneers 27.
Closest of our models: ESPN FPI (Bengals by 3.1, missed by 2.9). 4 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 1 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Bengals won 33–27. Burrow threw for 254 yards and 1 touchdown. Our call (Bengals, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Buccaneers | Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 282 | 351 |
| Passing yards | 193 | 245 |
| Rushing yards | 89 | 106 |
| Sacked | 4 (23 yards) | 1 (9 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Bengals by 1.9 ✓ | 57% | 4.1 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Bengals by 2.9 ✓ | 59% | 3.1 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Bengals by 1.7 ✓ | 56% | 4.3 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Buccaneers by 0.2 ✗ | 51% | 6.2 |
| ESPN FPI ClosestESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Bengals by 3.1 ✓ | 62% | 2.9 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Bengals ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Bengals by 3.5 | — | 2.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 1 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
The Bengals won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 18, 2022Week 15, 2022 | Bengals 34, Buccaneers 23at Tampa Bay |
| Oct 28, 2018Week 8, 2018 | Bengals 37, Buccaneers 34at Cincinnati |
| Nov 30, 2014Week 13, 2014 | Bengals 14, Buccaneers 13at Tampa Bay |
| Oct 10, 2010Week 5, 2010 | Buccaneers 24, Bengals 21at Cincinnati |
| Oct 15, 2006Week 6, 2006 | Buccaneers 14, Bengals 13at Tampa Bay |