4 of 5 models favor the Vikings.
On average the models have the Vikings by 1.9 points, a 56% win chance.
Final: Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16.
Closest: Elo (Vikings by 4.6, missed by 2.4). 4 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 3 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Vikings won 23–16. Murray threw for 168 yards and 1 touchdown. Our call (Vikings, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Vikings | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 230 | 243 |
| Passing yards | 152 | 186 |
| Rushing yards | 78 | 57 |
| Sacked | 3 (16 yards) | 6 (31 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 2 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Vikings by 1.9 ✓ | 56% | 5.1 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Buccaneers by 2.3 ✗ | 57% | 9.3 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Vikings by 4.6 ✓ | 66% | 2.4 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Vikings by 4 ✓ | 62% | 3.0 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Vikings by 1.4 ✓ | 55% | 5.6 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Vikings ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Vikings by 1.5 | — | 5.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 3 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 3; league rank in brackets.
| Vikings | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.07 (9th) | −0.09 (27th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.02 (22nd) | −0.07 (29th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.09 (1st) | +0.02 (21st) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.05 (19th) | −0.10 (30th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.09 (11th) | −0.03 (4th) |
| Offense success rate | 40% (31st) | 43% (21st) |
The Buccaneers won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 10, 2023Week 1, 2023 | Buccaneers 20, Vikings 17at Minnesota |
| Dec 13, 2020Week 14, 2020 | Buccaneers 26, Vikings 14at Tampa Bay |
| Sep 24, 2017Week 3, 2017 | Vikings 34, Buccaneers 17at Minnesota |
| Oct 26, 2014Week 8, 2014 | Vikings 19, Buccaneers 13at Tampa Bay |
| Oct 25, 2012Week 8, 2012 | Buccaneers 36, Vikings 17at Minnesota |