4 of 4 models favor the Bears.
On average the models have the Bears by 4 points, a 62% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Bears by 4 | 62% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Bears by 1.5 | 55% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Bears by 5.4 | 68% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Bears by 5 | 64% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Bears | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 9's first kickoff.
The official Week 9 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Buccaneers | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.01 (19th) | +0.02 (14th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.06 (26th) | +0.05 (11th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.04 (9th) | +0.02 (20th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.06 (28th) | +0.10 (14th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.04 (11th) | −0.02 (8th) |
| Offense success rate | 41% (23rd) | 46% (7th) |
The Buccaneers won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Sep 17, 2023Week 2, 2023 | Buccaneers 27, Bears 17at Tampa Bay |
| Oct 24, 2021Week 7, 2021 | Buccaneers 38, Bears 3at Tampa Bay |
| Oct 8, 2020Week 5, 2020 | Bears 20, Buccaneers 19at Chicago |
| Sep 30, 2018Week 4, 2018 | Bears 48, Buccaneers 10at Chicago |
| Sep 17, 2017Week 2, 2017 | Buccaneers 29, Bears 7at Tampa Bay |