5 of 5 models favor the Buccaneers.
On average the models have the Buccaneers by 6.3 points, a 70% win chance.
Final: Browns 23, Buccaneers 19.
Closest: Elo (Buccaneers by 3.7, missed by 7.7). 0 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was wrong.
Reconstructed: Week 2 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Browns won 23–19. Watson threw for 238 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (Buccaneers, Lean) was wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Browns | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 267 | 313 |
| Passing yards | 223 | 176 |
| Rushing yards | 44 | 137 |
| Sacked | 2 (15 yards) | 3 (6 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Buccaneers by 6.3 ✗ | 70% | 10.3 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Buccaneers by 7.7 ✗ | 72% | 11.7 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Buccaneers by 3.7 ✗ | 63% | 7.7 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Buccaneers by 5 ✗ | 65% | 9.0 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Buccaneers by 8.7 ✗ | 79% | 12.7 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Buccaneers ✗ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Buccaneers by 8.5 | — | 12.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 2 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 2; league rank in brackets.
| Browns | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.12 (31st) | −0.04 (21st) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.03 (23rd) | −0.03 (24th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.09 (29th) | +0.01 (16th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.01 (25th) | −0.03 (27th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.06 (20th) | −0.02 (7th) |
| Offense success rate | 45% (14th) | 45% (9th) |
The Buccaneers won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 27, 2022Week 12, 2022 | Browns 23, Buccaneers 17at Cleveland |
| Oct 21, 2018Week 7, 2018 | Buccaneers 26, Browns 23at Tampa Bay |
| Nov 2, 2014Week 9, 2014 | Browns 22, Buccaneers 17at Cleveland |
| Sep 12, 2010Week 1, 2010 | Buccaneers 17, Browns 14at Tampa Bay |
| Dec 24, 2006Week 16, 2006 | Buccaneers 22, Browns 7at Cleveland |