3 of 5 models favor the Packers.
On average the models have the Packers by 1.6 points, a 56% win chance.
Final: Packers 17, Buccaneers 14.
Closest of our models: ESPN FPI (Packers by 4.8, missed by 1.8). 3 of 4 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Reconstructed: Week 4 came before these pages existed, so every number here was worked out afterwards from data before the week, the same way as a live week (ESPN's FPI is the pre-game number ESPN still keeps). The scorecard keeps reconstructed weeks apart.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Packers won 17–14. Love threw for 197 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (Packers, Toss-up) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Packers | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 283 | 275 |
| Passing yards | 197 | 134 |
| Rushing yards | 86 | 141 |
| Sacked | 0 | 3 (14 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 2 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Packers by 1.6 ✓ | 56% | 1.4 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Packers by 5.2 ✓ | 66% | 2.2 |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Even | 50% | 3.0 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Buccaneers by 3.7 ✗ | 61% | 6.7 |
| ESPN FPI ClosestESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Packers by 4.8 ✓ | 68% | 1.8 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Packers ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Packers by 3 | — | 0.0 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
The official Week 4 injury report as on file Mon, Oct 5 · 10:53 AM CT, saved after the fact like the rest of this reconstructed week: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 4; league rank in brackets.
| Packers | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.11 (32nd) | −0.05 (22nd) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.04 (23rd) | −0.09 (29th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.08 (28th) | −0.04 (6th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | +0.04 (20th) | −0.10 (31st) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.21 (31st) | −0.05 (11th) |
| Offense success rate | 42% (25th) | 41% (27th) |
The Buccaneers won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 17, 2023Week 15, 2023 | Buccaneers 34, Packers 20at Green Bay |
| Sep 25, 2022Week 3, 2022 | Packers 14, Buccaneers 12at Tampa Bay |
| Jan 24, 2021Conference title game, 2020 | Buccaneers 31, Packers 26at Green Bay |
| Oct 18, 2020Week 6, 2020 | Buccaneers 38, Packers 10at Tampa Bay |
| Dec 3, 2017Week 13, 2017 | Packers 26, Buccaneers 20at Green Bay |