4 of 5 models favor the Steelers.
On average the models have the Steelers by 1.4 points, a 55% win chance.
Updated until kickoff, then frozen.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
Weather at kickoff: 80°F, mostly sunny, wind 18 mph from the east-northeast, little chance of rain.
Forecast: National Weather Service, read Tue, Oct 13 · 10:50 PM CT.
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Steelers by 1.4 | 55% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Steelers by 1.9 | 56% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Steelers by 1.7 | 56% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Buccaneers by 0.2 | 51% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Steelers by 2 | 58% |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Steelers | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Steelers by 2.5 | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of .
The official injury report, as of Tue, Oct 13 · 9:57 AM CT: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
Week 5 report (last filed); Week 6 not filed yet.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 6; league rank in brackets.
| Steelers | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.03 (22nd) | −0.01 (19th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.02 (18th) | −0.06 (26th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.01 (18th) | −0.04 (9th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.01 (22nd) | −0.06 (28th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.02 (7th) | −0.04 (11th) |
| Offense success rate | 43% (18th) | 41% (23rd) |
The Steelers won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Oct 16, 2022Week 6, 2022 | Steelers 20, Buccaneers 18at Pittsburgh |
| Sep 24, 2018Week 3, 2018 | Steelers 30, Buccaneers 27at Tampa Bay |
| Sep 28, 2014Week 4, 2014 | Buccaneers 27, Steelers 24at Pittsburgh |
| Sep 26, 2010Week 3, 2010 | Steelers 38, Buccaneers 13at Tampa Bay |
| Dec 3, 2006Week 13, 2006 | Steelers 20, Buccaneers 3at Pittsburgh |