2 of 5 models favor the Commanders.
On average the models have the Commanders by 1.2 points, a 54% win chance.
Final (overtime): tied 27–27.
Closest: Elo (Giants by 0.1, missed by 0.1). The game ended tied, so no model named the winner.
The game ended tied.
Frozen at kickoff. Predictions never change after kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Giants and Commanders tied 27–27 in overtime. Winston threw for 326 yards and 3 touchdowns. The game ended tied, so our call (Commanders, Toss-up) was neither right nor wrong.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Giants | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 408 | 378 |
| Passing yards | 305 | 176 |
| Rushing yards | 103 | 202 |
| Sacked | 2 (21 yards) | 5 (23 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Commanders by 1.2 ½ | 54% | 1.2 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Commanders by 0.4 ½ | 51% | 0.4 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Giants by 0.1 ½ | 50% | 0.1 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Giants by 1.4 ½ | 54% | 1.4 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Commanders by 5.8 ½ | 71% | 5.8 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Giants ½ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Commanders by 3.5 | — | 3.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of , the last check before kickoff.
The last official Week 5 injury report before kickoff, as of Sun, Oct 11 · 1:01 AM CT, frozen with the prediction: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
And 4 more on the report.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 5; league rank in brackets.
| Giants | Commanders | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.06 (23rd) | −0.08 (26th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.05 (23rd) | −0.05 (26th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.01 (18th) | +0.03 (22nd) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | 0.00 (23rd) | +0.01 (22nd) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.11 (20th) | −0.15 (27th) |
| Offense success rate | 41% (28th) | 39% (30th) |
The Commanders won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Dec 14, 2025Week 15, 2025 | Commanders 29, Giants 21at New York |
| Sep 7, 2025Week 1, 2025 | Commanders 21, Giants 6at Washington |
| Nov 3, 2024Week 9, 2024 | Commanders 27, Giants 22at New York |
| Sep 15, 2024Week 2, 2024 | Commanders 21, Giants 18at Washington |
| Nov 19, 2023Week 11, 2023 | Giants 31, Commanders 19at Washington |