5 of 5 models favor the Vikings.
On average the models have the Vikings by 3.2 points, a 61% win chance.
Final: Vikings 23, Saints 13.
Closest: Elo (Vikings by 6.7, missed by 3.3). 5 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Frozen at kickoff. Predictions never change after kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Vikings won 23–13. Murray threw for 229 yards and 1 touchdown. Our call (Vikings, Lean) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Vikings | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 364 | 142 |
| Passing yards | 211 | 87 |
| Rushing yards | 153 | 55 |
| Sacked | 2 (18 yards) | 1 (9 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 2 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Vikings by 3.2 ✓ | 61% | 6.8 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Vikings by 0.3 ✓ | 51% | 9.7 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Vikings by 6.7 ✓ | 72% | 3.3 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Vikings by 4.6 ✓ | 63% | 5.4 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Vikings by 1.4 ✓ | 56% | 8.7 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Vikings ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Vikings by 1.5 | — | 8.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of , the last check before kickoff.
The last official Week 5 injury report before kickoff, as of Sun, Oct 11 · 8:56 AM CT, frozen with the prediction: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
And 1 more on the report.
And 1 more on the report.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 5; league rank in brackets.
| Vikings | Saints | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | +0.03 (12th) | −0.10 (29th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.07 (30th) | 0.00 (16th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.10 (1st) | +0.09 (29th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.04 (27th) | +0.04 (19th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.12 (23rd) | −0.07 (15th) |
| Offense success rate | 36% (32nd) | 44% (14th) |
The Vikings won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 12, 2023Week 10, 2023 | Vikings 27, Saints 19at Minnesota |
| Oct 2, 2022Week 4, 2022 | Vikings 28, Saints 25neutral site |
| Dec 25, 2020Week 16, 2020 | Saints 52, Vikings 33at New Orleans |
| Jan 5, 2020Wild Card, 2019 | Vikings 26, Saints 20at New Orleans |
| Oct 28, 2018Week 8, 2018 | Saints 30, Vikings 20at Minnesota |