5 of 5 models favor the Jaguars.
On average the models have the Jaguars by 5.8 points, a 68% win chance.
Final: Jaguars 19, Eagles 17.
Closest: Elo (Jaguars by 3.7, missed by 1.7). 5 of 5 models named the winner.
Our call was right.
Frozen at kickoff. Predictions never change after kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
The Jaguars won 19–17. Lawrence threw for 331 yards and 2 touchdowns. Our call (Jaguars, Lean) was right.
Passing: completions-attempts, yards. Rushing: carries-yards. Receiving: catches-yards.
| Team stats | Eagles | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Yards gained | 232 | 408 |
| Passing yards | 210 | 306 |
| Rushing yards | 22 | 102 |
| Sacked | 1 (10 yards) | 2 (25 yards) |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
From nflverse's player stats, published the morning after the game: each team's numbers are its players' lines added up, and passing yards are net of the yards lost to sacks, as the NFL counts them.
| Model | Says | Win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Jaguars by 5.8 ✓ | 68% | 3.8 |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Jaguars by 3.9 ✓ | 62% | 1.9 |
| Elo ClosestEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Jaguars by 3.7 ✓ | 63% | 1.7 |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Jaguars by 9 ✓ | 75% | 7.0 |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. | Jaguars by 6.5 ✓ | 74% | 4.5 |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Jaguars ✓ | — | — |
| MarketThe market's margin, shown for comparison only: never a win chance, and not in our call. | Jaguars by 7.5 | — | 5.5 |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Injury statuses as of , the last check before kickoff.
The last official Week 5 injury report before kickoff, as of Sun, Oct 11 · 1:01 AM CT, frozen with the prediction: game status and practice status. Players with a game status or a missed or limited practice.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through the games before Week 5; league rank in brackets.
| Eagles | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.11 (31st) | +0.17 (2nd) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.06 (28th) | +0.13 (2nd) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | +0.06 (26th) | −0.04 (5th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.02 (25th) | +0.24 (2nd) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.11 (21st) | +0.01 (5th) |
| Offense success rate | 40% (29th) | 49% (2nd) |
The Eagles won 5 of the last 5 meetings.
| Nov 3, 2024Week 9, 2024 | Eagles 28, Jaguars 23at Philadelphia |
| Oct 2, 2022Week 4, 2022 | Eagles 29, Jaguars 21at Philadelphia |
| Oct 28, 2018Week 8, 2018 | Eagles 24, Jaguars 18neutral site |
| Sep 7, 2014Week 1, 2014 | Eagles 34, Jaguars 17at Philadelphia |
| Sep 26, 2010Week 3, 2010 | Eagles 28, Jaguars 3at Jacksonville |